With my previous post in place, we can begin to get at least a blurry picture of what the post season bowl games might look like. As we begin this prognosticatory expedition, we need to have a really good handle on the rules for bowl games, so we’ll review those here.
There are 32 bowl games at present, five of which will match BCS versus BCS. I won’t get into details on how BCS rankings are calculated, but suffice it to say that it is a combination of humans (pollsters) and computer rankings. The BCS five are:
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)
Orange Bowl (Miami)
Fiesta Bowl (Tempe, AZ)
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)
National Championship (Glendale, AZ)
These five follow a very specific set of rules, so to get a berth in one of these games is many times not only unfair, but can leave very good teams out. By rule, the National Championship must pit the BCS #1 and the BCS #2 teams. The remaining four, must choose BCS teams under the following guidelines:
1. Winners of the ACC, Big-10, Big East, Pac-10 and SEC must be given a slot in a BCS game. These are automatic bids.
2. In addition, ONE conference champion from the C-USA, MAC, MWAC, Sun Belt, and WAC will be added if a) it is ranked in the BCS top 14, or b) if it is ranked in the top 16 AND ranked ABOVE one of the autobids mentioned above.
3. Notre Dame, because they are an independent (and frankly cuz they have a tremendous following and thus bring in tons of revenue), must get an automatic bid if they are BCS ranked 8 or above.
4. No more than two teams from the same conference can play in the BCS bowls in any one season. This applies across ALL BCS games including the national championship (for instance IF Ohio State and Michigan rematch for the title, no other Big 10 team could play in any other bowl game).
Outside the BCS, each bowl usually has some affiliation with one or more of the conferences. As we explore the possibilities, we’ll see how this plays in.
Now, based on the previous Blog, and winners/losers of the championship games predicted there, here’s what might be the projected BCS top 20 at season end:
1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. Arkansas
5. West Virginia
6. Notre Dame
7. Florida
8. Wisconsin
9. Louisville
10. LSU
11. Boise State
12. Auburn
13. Texas
14. Oklahoma
15. Georgia Tech
16.Virginia Tech
17. Boston College
18. California
19. Tennessee
20. Rutgers
With this speculation, and without further ado, lets go bowling!
BCS Championship (BCS#1 v. BCS#2): If we follow my previous blog, then this should be Ohio State and USC. The Trojans would be playing in their 4th consecutive national title game.
Allstate Sugar Bowl (BCS v. BCS): This is likely to be the SEC Champion., Arkansas versus the Big East Champion Louisville.
FedEX Orange Bowl (BCS v. BCS): Probably will take the ACC Champion Georgia Tech and match with a BCS at large West Virginia. They are the best choice here.
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (BCS v. BCS): Barring something very crazy, this should Texas and probably Boise State, who gets the autobid being ranked above the conference champion (see rule 2 above).
Rose Bowl (BCS v. BCS): Back to basics here, probably a rematch of Michigan and Notre Dame. The Wolverines (#3) probably get an at large here. ND must get a bid based on rule 3, so this makes it a no brainer.
I’ll inteject here, that it is possible that West Virginia or Louisville gets shut out here. If Rutgers loses to West Virginia, remember that Louisville wins the Big East because they would tie with West Virginia for the title and Louisville won the earlier head-to-head, so they would get the autobid. However, if Rutgers were to WIN against West Virginia, this gets a little nuts. Referring back to the previous blog, this would drop West Virginia to 2 losses (and likely out of the BCS top 10) and then Louisville and Rutgers would share the Big East title. However, since Rutgers beat Louisville in their only head-to head, Rutgers would get the autobid instead. Louisville would probably still get a bid, since they have rallied to be in the top 10. Wisconsin could NOT go to a BCS, by virtue of rule 4 above, so Louisville would be the likely at large bid. This would mean that there might be some jockeying around for positions in the BCS games. Quite likely Rutgers would just take the Sugar Bowl spot against Arkansas, but there might be a swap around with Notre Dame also, we’ll see.
GMAC Bowl (C-USA #2 v. MAC): Southern Miss v. Ohio. We now get the alliances beginning to play here. Referring back to our previous blog, the C-USA #2 will be Southern Miss. A good choice for the MAC here would be its winner, Ohio. The game is played in Mobile, Alabama on January 7, 2007. Its interesting to note that on occasion, the WAC is asked to participate here.
International Bowl (MAC vs Big East 4/5): Central Michigan v. Cincinatti. Check my previous blog and you’ll see these are the appropriate choices here if the predicitions happen as stated.
Capital One Bowl (Big Ten #2 vs SEC #2): Wisconsin v. Florida. With both Ohio State and Michigan already taken in BCS Bowls, the #3 becomes the #2 for the Big 10. Florida gets the #2 since we picked Arkansas to win the SEC. Played in Orlando, FL, Jan 1, 2007.
Toyota Gator Bowl (ACC #3 vs Big12 or Big East): Boston College v. Oklahoma. Ok this one is a bit loosy goosey. BC will in all probability end up #3 in the ACC. If crazy things happen, as discussed above, and Rutgers gets by W. Virginia, then probably this spot goes to the Mountaineers. However, I dont see that happening, so the next logical team would be to grab Rutgers (the projected #20) or Oklahoma, who would be the higher ranked team. The Gator Bowl is played in Jacksonville, FL on Jan 1, 2007.
Outback Bowl (Big 10 #3 vs SEC): Penn State v. LSU. Might also be Auburn. Which ever SEC team doesnt go here goes to the Cotton Bowl. The Outback Bowl is played Jan 1, 2007 in Tampa, FL.
AT&T Cotton Bowl (Big-12 #2 vs SEC): Nebraska v. Auburn. The Cotton Bowl is played January 1, 2007 in Dallas.
MPC Computers Bowl (WAC vs. ACC): San Jose State v. Kent State. Problem with this one, is that Nevada would be in line, but will probably opt for the New Mexico Bowl. Clemson, the #6 ACC team would be in line here, but will probably opt to go to the Car Care Bowl. So, we’re out of ACC teams. WAC will send San Jose State (their only other bowl eligible team) and the at large might go east to Kent State from the MAC. The MPC Computers Bowl is played in Boise, Idaho on December 31, 2006.
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (ACC #2 vs SEC): Wake Forest v. Tennessee. This is a pretty clear choice since WF is the ACC#2 and Tennessee would be a great regional choice, since the game is played in Atlanta on Dec 30.
Alamo Bowl (Big 10 #4/5 vs Big 12 #4): Purdue v. Missouri. Purdue is the #4 in the Big 12 as we worked the projections, while Missouri falls in the #4 spot for the Big 12. The Alamo Bowl is played in San Antonio on Dec 30.
Meineke Car Care Bowl (Navy/Big East vs ACC): Navy vs. Clemson. Navy gets this bid since its automatic if they are bowl eligible and not in a BCS Bowl. Clemson is the logical regional favorite since the game is played in Charlotte, NC on Dec 30.
Champs Sports Bowl (ACC #4 vs Big 10 4/5): Virginia Tech v. Minnesota. Pretty much locked in based on their finishing order as projected. The Champs Sports Bowl, formerly the Florida Citrus Bowl (and Tangerine Bowl), will be played Dec 29, 2006 in Orlando.
Insight Bowl (Big 12 #6 vs Big 10 #6): Texas A&M v. Iowa. Based on predicted order of finish, makes these the likely choices. The Insight Bowl will be played in Tempe, AZ on Dec 29.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (C-USA #1 vs. SEC #6): Houston v. Kentucky. Based on predicted order of finish these are the likely candidates. The Liberty Bowl will be played in Memphis on Dec 29.
Brut Sun Bowl (Pac 10 #3 vs Big 12/Big East): Oregon State v. Rutgers. Poor Rutgers, after having the season of their life pays for its lapse against Cincinatti and ends up here. Good showcase tho. The Sun Bowl will be played on December 29th in El Paso, TX.
Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl (ACC#5 vs SEC): Maryland v. Georgia. The Music City Bowl is played in Nashville, TN on December 29th.
Texas Bowl (Big East vs. Big 12): Southern Florida v. Texas Tech. The Texas Bowl is the newest bowl game to be established, and as such this will be its inaugural game. The game will be played in Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX on December 28th.
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl (Pac 10 #2 vs Big 12 #3): California v. Oklahoma. Texas goes BCS’ing and Nebraska goes to the Cotton. Here’s where OU ends up. The Holiday Bowl is played in San Diego on December 28th.
PetroSun Independence Bowl (SEC #8 vs Big 12 #7): South Carolina v. Kansas State. The Independence Bowl will be played December 28th in Shreveport, LA.
Emerald Bowl (Pac 10 #5 vs ACC#7): Oregon v. Florida State. The Emerald Bowl is played in San Franciso on December 27.
Motor City Bowl (Big 10 #7 v MAC): Alabama or Washington State v. Western Michigan. At this level we run out of Big 10 teams so an at large is needed. SEC Alabama seems to be a good choice as well as the non-committed WSU, both teams being at 6-6. Utah or Oklahoma State might also get considered against W. Michigan (who would be a regional favorite). The Motor City Bowl is played December 26th in Detroit.
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl (WAC vs PAC-10): Hawaii v. UCLA. Hawaii always takes the home spot here, and UCLA is the next in line from the Pac-10. This might be WSU if someone else takes the Motor City bowl.. but where would you want to be in late December… Detroit or Hawaii? The Hawaii Bowl is played in Honolulu on December 24th.
Bell Hellicopter Armed Forces Bowl (MWAC vs C-USA): TCU v. SMU. Ahh what a great old matchup. Bound to generate alot of interest. This is the former Fort Worth Bowl, and should be packed with this matchup. It is played in Fort Worth on the campus of TCU on December 23rd.
New Mexico Bowl (WAC vs MWAC): Nevada v. New Mexico. The game is played in Albuquerque, NM on December 23rd.
PapaJohns.com Bowl (C-USA vs Big East): Rice v. Pittsburgh. Note here that Rice and SMU might switch places in the Armed Forces Bowl, but not likely. This game is played in Birmingham, AL on Dec 23rd.
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (Sun Belt #1 vs. C-USA): Middle Tennessee State v. Tulsa. The game is played in the SuperDome on Dec 22.
Pioneer Pure-Vision Las Vegas Bowl (Pac 10 #4 v. MWAC): Arizona v. BYU. This bowl game is played at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas on Dec 22nd.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (MWAC vs At Large): Wyoming v. Arizona State. This is a roll the dice kind of thing on this one…hard to say who they will really choose. Its played in San Diego on December 19th.
Well, there you have it. The predictions of all predictions. I dare say that that not many would be making these this far in advance, but hey, I am a daredevil.
