I have to admit, I love this time of year, when so many things begin to happen in college football. Great teams begin to really pull away, and others live to totally ruin another team’s season. It all seems to be somewhat morose, but very fun actually 
One thing I am fond of doing around this time is to do a little prophesying into final winners in conferences and how the BCS and bowl games might begin to shape up. In order to do this, we need to play a lot of “what if” and pretend we have a way of knowing how people will vote in the BCS.. all very speculative, and lots of fun. So here we go, we will start on the east coast and work our way west.
Big East: Rutgers, Louisville and West Virginia all have a shot at the title here, but only one can win. The key game is coming up on December 2 when Rutgers and West Virginia play. Louisville beat West Virginia earlier this year, and Cincinnatti upset Rutgers this past weekend. This put Rutgers, Louisville and West Virginia in a 3-way tie. Assuming that Rutgers can get by Syracuse, and Louisville gets by Pitt and Conn, a win by Rutgers gives them the Big East crown, probably knocking West Virginia from any BCS bowl game consideration. A loss by Rutgers to the Mountaineers will give the title to Louisville, and keep BOTH West Virginia and Louisville in the BCS top ten and a coveted game. I look for this to happen. So the finishing order in the Big East should be (bowl eligible teams only):
1. Louisville (6-1) (11-1)
2. West Virginia (6-1) (11-1)
3. Rutgers (5-2) (10-2)
4. Cincinatti (4-3) (7-5)
5. South Florida (3-4) (7-5)
6. Pittsburgh (2-5) (6-6)
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC): Alot of interesting things have happened here this year. This conference has been very competitive this year, and yet the highest BCS ranking of any ACC team this year is 16 at the moment (Georgia Tech). However the winner here gets a free pass to a BCS Bowl (most likely the Orange). Boston College and Wake Forest are battling to the bitter end in the Atlantic division, but since BC lost to Wake earlier in the year they are at the disadvantage. BC only has one game left against a dilapidated Miami team, while Wake Forest must play a scrappy Maryland team. I see BC beating Miami and Wake Forest beating Maryland to both finish at 6-2. By virtue of the fact that Wake beat BC earlier in the year, they win the Atlantic Division and go to the ACC Championship against Georgia Tech who has already locked up the Coastal Division. I like Georgia Tech to win the ACC and get the trip to Miami. The finish looks like this (bowl eligible teams only):
1. Georgia Tech (7-1) (9-3) ( I think Georgia edges GT in their last game)
2. Wake Forest (6-2) (10-2)
3. Boston College (6-2) (10-2)
4. Virginia Tech (6-2) (10-2)
5. Maryland (5-3) (8-4)
6. Clemson (5-3) (8-4)
7. Florida State (3-5) (6-6)
Southeastern Conference (SEC): Here will be the best games, bar none, of the bowl season, even if they arent bowl games! Florida has long since run away with the SEC East going 7-1 (10-1 overall) and sitting at BCS #4 right now. They only have one game left, against their rival Florida State which I just cant see them losing (though you never know). Regardless of the outcome they will be in the SEC Championship game against Arkansas, who also has clinched, and may be the hottest team in college football right now. Arkansas lost their first game of the season in a blowout to USC, then proceded to run the table. They are 7-0 in the SEC and 10-1 overall. The SEC championship will pit a #4 vs a #6 most likely (assuming that Arkansas can get by LSU), with neither team dropping from the BCS top 10 unless there is a blow out. I dont look for that. This game will top ANY BCS bowl game you’ll see this season, including the BCS Championship. Too bad this will be played before then. I will go with Arkansas to edge Florida for the crown, which sets the order of finish as below (bowl eligible teams only):
1. Arkansas (9-0) (12-1)
2. Florida (7-2) (11-2)
3. Auburn (6-2) (10-2)
4. LSU (5-3) (9-3)
5. Tennessee (5-3) (9-3)
6. Kentucky (4-4) (7-5)
7. Georgia (4-4) (8-4)
8. South Carolina (4-4) (7-5)
9. Alabama (2-6) (6-6)
Big 10: All the pre-bowl action seems to have happened here, with the Ohio State-Michigan ballyhoo ending in basically no change to the BCS. This wasnt entirely unforeseen, and with a few quirky things might yield a repeat for the National Championship, but highly unlikely. However, I am reasonably sure that both OSU and Michigan get BCS bids. If Florida and USC lose down the stretch, it might make the rematch a good possibility. The conference standings are fixed, and only Purdue has a trailing game against non-conference Hawaii, so the order of finish is as follows (bowl eligible only):
1. Ohio State (8-0) (12-0)
2. Michigan (7-1) (11-1)
3. Wisconsin (7-1) (11-1)
4. Penn State (5-3) (8-4)
5. Purdue (5-3) (8-4)
6. Minnesota (3-5) (6-6)
7. Iowa (2-6) (6-6)
MAC (Mid American Conf): The MAC doesnt really play much into the BCS picture at all (if any), but they are tied into bowl games, so we have to at least cover it. Ohio is the cream here in the MAC-East, currently a game ahead of Kent State. Ohio should be able to muster wins in its last two games against Miami (Ohio) and Central Michigan to finish on top at 8-1. Kent State will finish second here. Central Michigan and Western Michigan will battle to the last week for the MAC-West, but I’m picking Central Michigan to come out on top here, even losing to Ohio. This will put Ohio and Central Michigan battling for the MAC Championship where anything goes. Its really hard to pick a team to win two weeks in a row, but I think Ohio is that much better than Central Michigan. The final order in the MAC (bowl eligible teams only):
1. Ohio (9-1) (11-3)
2. Central Michigan (7-3) (8-6)
3. Western Michigan (6-2) (8-4)
4. Kent State (6-2) (7-5)
5. Northern Illinois (5-3) (7-5)
Sun Belt Conference: Another conference that plays no role in the BCS. However the winner of the conference gets an automatic bid to the New Orleans Bowl, so its not insignificant. This year Middle Tennesee State has this already wrapped up. Even a loss to Troy in the last game would put them a game ahead. So Middle Tenn State goes bowling in New Orleans.
Big 12: In what used to be maybe the best football conference, this year it has been anything but. By losing to Kansas State last week, Texas has put itself in a very tough bind. They must beat Texas A&M to get to the Big 12 title game. A loss by Texas to A&M and a win by Oklahoma over Oklahoma State, puts OU in the title game against Nebraska who has clinched their spot. I think Texas will have enough chutzpah to do this I believe. So, the following should be the Big 12 finishing order (bowl eligible teams only):
1. Texas (8-1) (11-2)
2. Oklahoma (7-1) (10-2)
3. Nebraska (6-3) (9-4)
4. Missouri (4-4) (8-4)
5. Texas Tech (4-4) (7-5)
6. Texas A&M (4-4) (8-4)
7. Kansas State (4-4) (8-4)
8. Oklahoma State (3-5) (6-6)
9. Kansas (3-5) (6-6)
Conference USA: C-USA teams have very little impact on any decisions regarding BCS bowl games, but do have ties to some bowl games. Southern Miss should take care of Marshall in its last game to win the C-USA East outright. If they lose, the Eastern Carolina will win by virtue of an earlier season victory over So Miss. Houston has already locked up the West. So the finishing order in the C-USA (bowl eligible teams only) should be:
1. Houston (8-1) (10-3)
2. Southern Miss (6-3) (8-5)
3. SMU (5-3) (7-5)
4. Rice (5-3) (6-6)
5. Tulsa (5-3) (8-4)
6. UTEP (4-4) (6-6)
Midwest Athletic Conference: Brigham Young holds a rather commanding position here and should have no problem advancing to a post-season bowl game. They should beat Utah in their final game, while TCU should do the same against Colorado State and Air Force. Others should finish as noted (bowl eligible teams only):
1. BYU (8-0) (10-2)
2. TCU (6-2) (10-2)
3. Wyoming (5-3) (6-6)
4. Utah (5-3) (6-6)
5. New Mexico (4-4) (6-6)
Western Athletic Conf: Boise State pretty much controls it destiny here, and should claim the mandatory non-major conference BCS auto-bid. They need to beat Nevada, but this shouldn’t be a problem. Hawaii has already accepted their obligatory bid to the Hawaii Bowl, so other than these, nothing really counts (bowl eligible teams only):
1. Boise State (8-0) (12-0)
2. Hawaii (7-1) (11-2)
3. Nevada (5-3) (8-4)
4. San Jose State (5-3) (8-4)
PAC-10: The PAC-10 always figures very heavily into the BCS picture. USC is in control of its own destiny. A win over Notre Dame and UCLA should put them in the National Championship, as the BCS should award them with enough style points to push past Michigan. A blow out by USC would for sure do it, a slim win, might cause the pollsters to hedge their bets. California should have no problem getting past hapless Stanford to capture the #2. Bowl alliances will find places for most all of the Pac-10 teams (bowl eligble finishes):
1. USC (8-1) (11-1)
2. California (7-2) (9-3)
3. Oregon State (5-4) (7-6)
4. Arizona (5-4) (7-6)
5. Oregon (5-4) (7-5)
6. Washington State (4-5) (6-6)
7. UCLA (4-5) (6-6)
8. Arizona State (3-6)(6-6)
Well, thats the run down on my end of year predictions. In my next blog entry, we’ll see how all this plays into the bowl picture!
