Some very interesting games over the next few weeks can play into a myriad of chances for the National Title Game to be played in Glendale. Ohio State is is all of the scenarios, as there’s no scenario whatsoever that eliminates them. However their opponent could be vary. Let’s look at those that have the best shot to wrestle the Buckeyes for the top trophy.
Michigan: Currently they sit at #2, despite a loss to OSU last week, but only by a slim margin (0.053 to be exact). With no more games on tap for Michigan, they will need some help from the lower teams to be the odds-on favorite for the rematch. The USC-Notre Dame game certainly holds no love for Michigan, no matter how it goes. If USC wins and follows with a victory over UCLA, then the BCS will reward them for beating a top 5 team, and would most certainly be enough to push them ahead of the Wolverines. If Notre Dame wins, unless it wins big, there probably wont be enough impetus to push them past Michigan, unless the pollsters get on board (Notre Dame is hurt badly for their weak schedule). Florida would need to lose either their game against Florida State this weekend, and/or the SEC Championship also to not be a factor. So, Michigan needs to hope that Notre Dame wins by a little, and that Florida loses the SEC Championship. It could happen.
USC: The Trojans have already locked up the Rose Bowl no matter what. However they are the ONLY team in the standings that is in complete control of their National Title destiny. If they win out, they go to the title game, plain and simple. If they dont, its Rose Bowl all the way (by virtue of the fact they win the Pac-10). Its that simple…but not that easy.
Florida: Florida has a huge road ahead of them. First they must win out, including the SEC Championship over Arkansas to even hope they get a consideration. In addition they must hope for a USC loss in the last two games. This would put the pollsters in a bind. Would they want the rematch with Michigan, or not? The BCS will not likely reward them enough for beating a lower ranked opponent to push them ahead of Michigan unless they totally dominate Arkansas. Even then, they’ll need help from the pollsters.
Notre Dame: The Irish, for some reason, always seem to garner the sympathetic vote. A good solid win over USC on Saturday, might be enough to create the groundswell among the pollsters to put them 2nd over Michigan. But, alot has to happen. First, they MUST beat USC decisively, and maybe even big to be considered. Second, Florida must lose at least the SEC Championship. A loss to Florida State, however, might drop them enough that an SEC title win couldnt save them. Even with all this, it would be a pollster gambit… put ND at #2 or vote a rematch between Michigan and Ohio State… hard to figure, but either way, its a gamble.
Arkansas: Nope – sorry. There isnt a way in the world that Arkansas gets there. The only thing they could possibly do is beat the hell out of LSU (and we’re talking 52-0), and then beat the hell out of Florida in the SEC Championship (again, like 35-0). Two back to back decisive wins, with losses by USC and Florida would then force a Michigan-Arkansas consideration. LSU is a lower rank, but Florida isnt. So, its feasible that if the pollsters actually placed Arkansas ahead of Notre Dame (highly unlikely), the BCS MIGHT reward them. Hard to fathom tho.]
Nobody else has a shot. So, for my money, the real game to key on is the USC-Notre Dame game. If USC wins, the die is basically cast.
[...] Theres no doubt about it. Michigan and Ohio State have proven themselves to be the best two teams in the country. USC however, has shown they can ball. Should USC be “considered” to be in the National Championship Game at all? Michigan already lost; should, and will it be USC’s turn? [...]