Perhaps the 2008 campaign will prove out to be vastly different from the 2007 campaign, in that, for the most part, the top 10 pretty much did its job this week, with only one upset. This differs quite drastically from last year when each week was a nightmare for someone in the top 5!
The lone exception this week was Penn State’s gaffe at Iowa, losing on a last second FG to lose their first game of the season and pretty much eliminate any talk of a National title there. They were already on shaky ground anyway, taking into account their weak schedules compared to the other top 5 teams. But the loss pretty much assures no title game, and, in fact, makes the upcoming Michigan State-Penn State game even more important. More about this later.
Alabama pulled through by nipping a hard-fighting LSU Tiger team in Baton Rouge. LSU’s lack of QB was the key to their loss, as their defense played magnificently. Throwing an interception in overtime is inexcusable, and we can’t imagine this QB not having the sense to know this. However, we have to keep reminding ourselves that Lee is a freshman, and as such, will do dumb things from time to time. He’ll be back, but don’t be surprised if some HS hotshot we’re unaware of takes his starting job away next fall.
Texas Tech didn’t struggle with top ten Oklahoma State, rolling to a 56-20 shellacking. Heisman front-runner Graham Harrell took center stage and showed the nation, yet again, why Tech should be ranked as high as they are. Just as a matter of note, there is the possibility that the Big-12 South could end in a 3-way tie, if Tech is unable to beat OU in 2 weeks, and then TTU, OU, and UT win the last week. In that case, the winner of the South is determined by who would have the highest BCS ranking. Our researcher, Jason Kathman, tells us that it would most likely be Oklahoma getting the boost from beating a #2 team, as opposed to Texas, even though UT beat OU earlier in the season. In that case, if OU went on to beat Missouri for the Big-12 title, we’d most likely see an OU-Florida National Championship, and both Texas and Texas Tech would be up for a BCS bowl game. Most likely it would be Texas, and Tech would get the Holiday Bowl against the runner up in the Pac-10 (USC or Oregon State). But there is absolutely no telling as to what might happen.
Florida continued its winning ways, and combined with the victory of Alabama over LSU, set the SEC Championship game as early in the season as we can remember. Florida is hitting on all cylinders, both offensively and defensively, and could be playing as good or better than most any team in the nation now. But just to show you how convoluted things could get, consider this. The Florida-Alabama SEC title game is shaping up to be a blockbuster, and just as the SEC and their TV partners envisioned it, as a truly pinnacle end-of-season performance. But, the Big 12 is holding a series of title games, all among 4 B-12S schools. A kind of round robin title format. Though the Cowboys are on the outside looking in, they can still have a direct impact on the championship picture. Even if OU beats TTU, if they are ambushed again in Stillwater, TTU gets to the B12 title game. If Florida beats Alabama, OU gets TTU but is whacked by OkSt., we still have PSU, USC, Florida, Alabama, Texas, and Tech with a single loss. So the national championship game becomes Utah vs who? Probably Fl by virtue of their (presumed) win over #1 ‘Bama, but remember, Tech owns a win over then #1 Tex, and their loss would be to Top 5 OU rather than unranked Ol’ Miss. However, remember also, pollsters have a VERY short memory.
So, with that synopsis, let’s get to the rankings!
#1 Alabama (10-0). Defeated #17 LSU (6-3) 27-21 in overtime at Baton Rouge. Next week: Mississippi State (3-6) at home. It wasn’t a particularly pretty game for Alabama, but considering the Saban-return dynamic, playing on the road in Baton Rouge, and that LSU overachieved, we’re willing to keep the Tide where they are at #1 this week. QB John Parker Wilson threw for 214 yards and rushed for two scores. Alabama intercepted Jarrett Lee four times with Rashad Johnson picking off three passes himself, including one in the end zone on LSU’s opening drive in overtime. Right now Bama is #1, but we are skeptical they’ll be there at the end of the season.
#2 Texas Tech (10-0), Defeated #11 Oklahoma State (8-2) 56-20 at home. Next week: Bye. Fresh off their last second heroics in beating #1 Texas last week, there was skepticism, whether Tech just lucked out. Even Lee Corso predicted the Raiders would lose “big” against OSU. As he often is, Lee was dead wrong. Tech bobbled a snap in their first series, giving up a quick TD. They they proceded to run off seven, yes seven straight touchdown drives. The only thing that stopped them was the band at halftime. Graham Harrell was 40/50 for 456 yards and 6 TDs. OSU, one of the best defensive teams in the country allowing an average of just over 320 yards per game, had allowed over that in the first half. In the end, they would allow 629 yards against the Raiders. Tech now has an off week, before traveling to Norman for the game of their lifetime. Tech’s path is pretty clear, if they beat OU and Baylor, then win the Big-12 Championship, no one keeps them from the National Title game. Any thing less, and they don’t even get a BCS bowl game without OU or Texas losing the final game of their season.
#3 Florida (8-1). Defeated Vanderbilt (5-4) 42-14 at Vanderbilt. Next week: South Carolina (7-3) at home. One time darling Vanderbilt, just couldn’t stay on the same field with so much speed and talent. We have to give the game ball to QB Tim Tebow who rushed for 88 yards and two TDs and passed for 171 yards and three TDs, which seemed to us more like his Heisman-winning stats from a year ago. Florida ends up with SC, Citadel and non-conference Florida State. There are some hard games in there, not the least of which will be next week (but SC goes to Talahassee), and then FSU is always a toughie. However, we can sure begin to see a National title invitation being written to Urban Meyer’s group in a few weeks if they beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game.
#4 Oklahoma (9-1). Defeated Texas A&M (4-6) 66-28 at College Station. Next week: Bye. This was pretty much expected, seeing that OU’s pass offense is as prolific as Texas Tech’s and A&M’s passing defense is, well, non-existant. QB Sam Bradford found four different receivers for touchdowns and passed for 320 yards and generated 653 yards of total offense. We can only shutter as to what happens in two weeks when Tech comes to town.
#5 Texas (9-1). Defeated Baylor (3-7) 45-21 in Austin. Next week: At Kansas (6-4). The Bears became the target of vengeance this week, as the Longhorns battered Baylor to get the bad taste out of their mouths resulting from the previous week’s last second loss to Tech. Colt McCoy overcame two first-half interceptions to end up with 5 TDs and 300 yards passing. Texas may find it hard to cheer for OU or Texas Tech in the next few weeks, but they may have to. Side note here, Bears are showing signs of becoming competitive. In a couple of more years for Baylor and A&M to grow up, the Big 12 South will be a bloodbath like even the SEC isn’t!
#6 USC (8-1). Defeated California (6-3) 17-3 at home. Next week: At Stanford (5-5). Without a doubt, USC has the best defense in the country, and against proved it Saturday holding the Cal Bears to 3 points and only 165 total yards of offense. This now makes a total of 13 points allowed in the last 5 weeks. Unlike LSU, however, USC does have enough ball-control offense to win. Mark Sanchez was 18/29 for 238 yards, 2 TDs and no interceptions. USC still has Notre Dame and UCLA at the end of their schedule, and still has to wait for Oregon State to lose to seal the Rose Bowl bid. The Beavers still have the hardest part of their schedule left: California at home, at Arizona, and Oregon at home.
#7 Utah (10-0). Defeated #12 TCU (9-2) 13-10. Next week: At San Diego State (1-9). So ok, we give up. Utah is better than TCU, although, not by much. Actually we shouldn’t move Utah up so much, as move TCU down, but that would be unfair. TCU can’t kick a field goal. Plain and simple. Two attempts went left and right that should have, at the very least, sent the game to OT. Credit a fiesty Utah defense however. Utah QB Brian Johnson passed for 230 yards and threw the game-winning TD with 47 seconds left. Projecting that Utah will probably be in the Fiesta Bowl, we can’t think of any BCS team that wont outscore Utah 3-4 TDs in that game.
#8 Penn State (9-1). Lost to Iowa (6-4) 24-23 at Iowa. Next week: Indiana (3-7) at home. Penn State’s promising season derailed on Saturday in an uncharacteristically sloppy performance against Iowa. We talk alot about how good teams dont lose focus against mediocre teams (ala Georgia). The Nittany Lions did just that. They tried to walk through the game, and ended up on the wrong end of the score, eliminating them from title contention. Now they’ll need every ounce of effort to get to the Rose Bowl, by beating Michigan State in a few weeks. Daryll Clark perhaps was the biggest bust, going only 9/23 for 86 yards and an interception. whew. All four of the Hawkeye’s losses to date were by a total of 12 pts, so if the passing attack showed any signs of life, Iowa had a chance, and that’s exactly what happened.
#9 Ohio State (8-2). Defeated Northwestern (7-3) 45-10 at NW. Next week: At Illinois (5-5). We kinda wonder what this noise is about putting Boise State above several teams here. Again, we think that the pollsters many times are on drugs, or never watch any games. Ohio State may right now be the best Big-10 team, yes even better than PSU who beat them by a TD just 1 week ago. Terrelle Pryor, the OSU freshman QB has to get the game ball after giving the Buckeyes a confidence booster with a huge rebound from last week’s painful loss to Penn State. Right now we’re not sure if PSU can get by MSU, so guess who is in the driver’s seat? If MSU beats PSU, Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl, if they win out, by virtue of the Buckeyes 45-7 win over MSU on 10/18.
#10 Boise State (9-0). Defeated Utah State (2-8) 49-14 at home. Next week: At Idaho (2-8). The Broncos have a chance to get to a BCS Bowl as an at-large bid, if they can continue to dominate their conference. The Utah State Aggies were no hurdle as BSU QB Kellen Moore was 27/36 for 362 yards and 2 TDs. The Bronco defense caused 6 Aggie turnovers also. BSU ends up with Idaho, Nevada and Fresno State.
#11 Oklahoma State (8-2). Lost to #2 Texas Tech (10-0) 56-20 in Lubbock. Next week: At Colorado (5-5). See above. The Cowboys could still play a spoiler when they play Oklahoma the last week of the regular season.
#12 Missouri (8-2). Defeated Kansas State (4-6) 41-24 at home. Next week: At Iowa State (2-8). Despite a mediocre night for Chase Daniels (24/36, 271 yards, 2 TDs. 2 INTs), the team racked up 511 yards of total offense against KSU. Missouri no longer can just sit back and relax. The season ender with Kansas could result in the Big-12 North Champion. Whoever that is, they’ll be at least a double-digit underdog to ANY Big-12 South opponent.
#13 Georgia (8-2). Defeated Kentucky (6-4) 42-38 at KY. Next week: At Auburn (5-5). The Bulldogs, yet again, lost focus, but this time were able to pull out a come-back victory with a last minute TD and then subsequent INT. It was the big three that came through in the clutch for Georgia: QB Matthew Stafford threw for a career-high 376 yards, Mohamed Massaquoi had a career-high eight catches for 191 yards and a score and Knowshon Moreno ran for 123 yards and three TDs. Georgia can only really affect anything, by playing spoiler in a couple of weeks against rival Georgia Tech.
#14 TCU (9-2). Lost to #7 Utah (10-0) 13-10. Next week: Bye. See above. TCU lost its chance to get to a BCS, unless BSU or Utah stumbles. Even then it would be climb.
#15 Brigham Young (9-1). Defeated San Diego State (1-9) 41-12 at home. Next week: At Air Force (8-2). There just isn’t much BYU can do at this point except try to win out and get a good post-season bowl game. They could definitely play spoiler in the MWAC if they were to beat Utah in the last game of the season, though. This week however, it was no surprise, QB Max Hall who completed 25 of 30 passes for 317 yards and three TDs. Three SDSU fumbles and an interception didn’t help either.
#16 Michigan State (9-2). Defeated Purdue (3-7) 21-7 at home. Next week: Bye. We were impressed with the Spartans against Purdue, even though it was a home game. Purdue, even despite its record, has played everyone very tough, especially defensively. While MSU isn’t going to really knock you over with offense, their defense in this game was admirable allowing less than 200 total yards. Javon Ringer played the power back and accumulated 121 yards on 31 carries and 2 TDs. MSU gets its chance in two weeks against Penn State. How much passing offense can MSU generate to loosen up PSU’s run defense? If they can’t do something like what Iowa did, Ringer will have an 80 yd day and MSU ends 9-3.
#17 LSU (6-3). Lost to #1 Alabama (10-0) 27-21 in overtime at Baton Rouge. Next week: Troy (6-3) at home. See above. A valiant effort, but with no Quarterback, LSU is doomed this year.
#18 Ball State (9-0). Defeated Northern Illinois (5-4) 45-14 at home. Next week: At Miami (OH) (2-7). The Cardinals keep rolling on toward a end of season showdown with Central Michigan for the Mac West in two weeks. Junior QB Nate Davis was 18/22 for 300 yards and 4 TDs.
#19 North Carolina (7-2). Defeated Georgia Tech (7-3) 28-7. Next week: At Maryland (6-3). And we now come to the highest ranked ACC team. We can’t remember that a BCS Conference had its leading team ranked so low. Of course this opens the door for such teams as Utah and Boise State. However, this was an impressive and somewhat surprising win by the Tar Heels. Three fourth-quarter TDs sealed the Tar Heels’ seventh win, the first time they’ve reach that mark since 2001. Georgia Tech seemed to have no answer, and continues to be week to week.
#20 Pitt (7-2). Defeated Louisville (5-4) 41-7 at home. Next week: Bye. The Panthers put it all together this week in crushing Louisville, breaking the Heinz Field curse. Pitt exploded on defense causing 5 Cardinal turnovers (3 fumbles 2 interceptions) and had a big 21-point 4th quarter to run away. Pitt’s path to the Big East Championship starts big in 2 weeks when they travel to Cincinnati to play the Bearcats. The end of the season against West Virginia and Connecticut, could come into play depending on how other games go.
#21 Florida State (7-2). Defeated Clemson (4-5) 41-27 at home. Next week: Boston College (6-3) at home. The Seminoles are precariously atop the ACC Atlantic, but can’t afford a slip up. In this game it was the FSU running game that was the spotlight, as five different backs accounted for 266 yards on the ground (shades of USC). With an earlier loss to Wake Forest, and an upcoming game against Maryland, FSU can’t afford even the slightest of let downs, but the road is tough… Boston College at home, and at Maryland will decide their fate.
#22 Cincinnati (7-2). Defeated West Virginia (6-3) 26-23 in OT at WV. Next week: At Louisville (5-4). The Bearcats keep surprising many people, playing well despite a bevvy of injuries that would have derailed most any other team. Cincy went out early in this game and held a 20-7 lead until 1:11 left in the game, when they ran out the back of the end zone for a safety (20-9). On the ensuing West Virgina possession, they scored and got a 2pt conversion with 19 seconds remaining (20-17). An onside kick was recovered, and WV kicked a tying FG with no time remaining to send it into overtime, at which time Cincy got the TD after WV got a FG. Cincy’s destiny is in its own hands, with games against Louisville, Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Winning out would get them a BCS Bowl as the Big East Champion.
#23 Tulsa (8-1). Did not play. Next week: At Houston (5-4). Tulsa sports the #1 offense in the country, yes ahead of Texas Tech. QB David Johnson has an overall rating of 198.25, and has thrown for almost 3000 yards and 33 touchdowns (comparatively, Graham Harrell has thrown for 4,077 yards, 36 touchdowns and has a rating of 169.18). The Golden Hurricane ran into difficulty last week against Arkansas and lost by a TD. However, they are still on track to win the C-USA west if they can get by Houston this week, then Tulane and Marshall.
#24 South Carolina (7-3). Defeated Arkansas (4-6) 34-21 at home. Next week: At #3 Florida. Very systematically, the ‘Ol Ball Coach has built a great program at South Carolina winning 6 of the last 7 games. We’ll remind everyone that the Gamecocks have lost to Georgia, Vanderbilt and LSU by only 7 points each time. So we’re not talking a fluke here. The Gamecock defense picked 3 interceptions in the Arkansas game and outscored the Razorbacks 14-7 in the 4th quarter to hold on to the victory. The game against Florida shouldn’t be taken lightly, even tho its in the Swamp.
#25 Virginia Tech (6-3). Defeated Maryland (6-3) 23-13 at home. Next week: At Miami (6-3). In and out of the T25 all year, the Hokies do seem to be playing their best team football right now. They entered the game averaging 280 yards per game, but exploded for 400, mostly behind RB Darren Evans who ran for a school-record 253 yards and a TD. The road is easy for VT…if they win out against Miami, Duke and Virginia they win the ACC Coastal by virtue of the fact they beat North Carolina earlier in the year.
Dropped out: Maryland, Ga Tech, Northwestern, West Virginia. California
Bubble: Kansas Minnesota, Wake Forest
Most Impressive: Texas Tech, Ohio State, Pitt
Least Impressive: Penn State, TCU, LSU
Top 25 Composition: Big-12 (5), SEC (5), Big-10 (3), ACC (3), MWAC (3), Big East (2), Pac-10 (1), WAC (1), C-USA (1), MAC (1)
This weeks Projected BCS Bowl Games:
National Championship: Florida vs. Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: USC vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah
Sugar Bowl: Boise State vs. Alabama
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Pittsburgh
