There will be a bit of a quiet knell in College Football as many teams have either played their pivotal games, or are off for the week. There is only one Top 25 match-up this week in fact, Florida v. South Carolina.
It’s very hard for young men to keep their eyes on the prize this time of year, and not be thinking ahead about a big rivalry game another week or two away. Actually, they can concentrate fairly easily on the next opponent; but all their friends, classmates, media, etc, speculate endlessly, and the players themselves can’t escape it when it surrounds them. Strange as it sounds, the practice field is the refuge of last resort, because that’s the only place where players are surrounded by coaches and teammates focused solely on the upcoming game, no matter the opponent. We don’t always think about these things week to week, but as the season winds down, keep in mind that there are lots of things on their minds each week.
On to the games:
#1 Alabama (10-0) hosts Mississippi State (3-6). Suffice it to say, that if Bama can’t take care of business at home against M-state, well that could be real trouble for the BCS. The Tide already has a date with Florida for the SEC Championship and a berth in the National Title game, so perhaps it might be easy to overlook such a lower opponent. However, Bama should be on guard. The Tide have lost to the Bulldogs in each of the past two seasons and have not scored an offensive TD in these teams’ past three games. That has to be a bit troubling if not in just thought. LSU gave them all they could hope for last week, in an emotionally charged game where turnovers caused Alabama to protect itself for much of the time. Saban’s bunch should however, be able to defensively control this game, and force turnovers. Look for Bama to pour it on, if given the chance. Crimson Tide by 17.
#2 Texas Tech (10-0) is idle.
#3 Florida (8-1) hosts #24 South Carolina (7-3). Florida, also, has a free pass to the SEC Championship, but like Alabama, can’t afford a cheap loss, especially at home. However, of the Gator’s remaining game, the Gamecocks could be the most challenging. The game boasts two teams that are on a winning tear. Steve Spurrier returns to the Swamp, leading a team that has won six of its past seven games after a 1-2 start. Florida, meanwhile, has won five straight since losing to Ole Miss in September. So, there’s all the motivation in the world for both to play well. SoCar has had trouble at time mustering enough offense to get ahead and stay ahead, while Florida’s offense of late has had no problems at all doing so. We think that this game could be close at the outset, but Florida should run away in the 2nd half and hide. Big question: if Florida wins big here, do they jump Texas Tech to #2? Maybe in the AP poll, but probably not in the BCS. Gators by 18.
#4 Oklahoma (9-1) is idle.
#5 Texas (9-1) at Kansas (6-4). The Longhorns lie peacefully in wait for the showdown next week between OU and Texas Tech, rooting hard for the Sooners (competition makes strange bedfellows). Kansas has been a bit of an enigma this year, but has managed to keep their Big-12 North hopes alive with #12 Missouri. The Jayhawks are one game behind the Tigers, so a win against Texas would give them the opportunity to play for a Big-12 Championship spot the final week, so there is no lack of motivation. Texas, on the other hand, also must win out, to have any Big-12 South hope, and for that matter, a trip to a BCS bowl. We think that Kansas can score against Texas, and score often, but at the same time, we question they can keep Texas under wraps. This could be a rather high scoring game, with Texas emerging late, perhaps on turnovers. Longhorns by 10.
#6 USC (8-1) at Stanford (5-5). In a nation full of lots of offense, the Trojans, uncharacteristically, have bucked that trend. Whatever the criticism of the Pac-10 competitiveness, USC has racked up six straight wins since losing to Oregon State early in the year. In those 6 games the Trojans defense has allowed a total of 23 points (avg of less than 4 points/game), and recorded 3 shutouts and only 1 offensive TD in the last 5 games. We don’t care what conference you are in, that’s total defensive domination. Unfortunately, USC’s offense has been sporadic, and “enough” to get by and outscore the opponents. There have been signs of the offense gelling of late, especially in the running game. Stanford on the other hand hasn’t had a bad season, and are 4-3 in conference play. That may seem far out there, but this year, its not. We can’t see Stanford doing something that the other teams (such as Arizona, Arizona State and Cal) have been unable to do…score points. We’ll stick with the Trojans. USC by 14.
#7 Utah (10-0) at San Diego State (1-9). Not a lot of mystery here. San Diego State is averaging giving up 36 pts per game, while scoring only 17. Utah is almost exactly the opposite. This should be no contest. Utes by 24.
#8 Penn State (9-1) hosts Indiana (3-7). It was a tough week for PSU in losing to Iowa, but by all intents and purposes, there was very little hope for a National Title. They simply need to regroup, win their last two games against Indiana and Michigan State, and they automatically get the Rose Bowl. Anything else sends Ohio State. The Nittany Lions need to worry about their offense of late, scoring only 36 pts total in the last two games. Defense can take you a long way, but Indiana can put points on the board, but unfortunately they give up alot of points too, like 55 to both Wisconsin and Illinois. We think that Clark and company get the O back on track this week to gain some momentum for the final championship game vs. Michigan State. Penn State by 20.
#9 Ohio State (8-2) at Illinois (5-5). The Buckeyes still have a lot of game in them, and if they don’t get to the Rose Bowl, they are probably headed for the Capital One Bowl. OSU needs to win out against Illinois and Michigan, both of whom can surprise on any given week. If they do, a Penn State lost puts them in the Rose. The first order of duty is silencing and containing Juice Williams, the talented Illinois QB. Illinois’ offense averages a Big Ten-best 438 yards/game, while Ohio State tops the league in total D (285 ypg). It may boil down to how well the OSU offense is operating that day. They’ve been inconsistent at best. However, we’ll count that the Buckeyes can put their usual excellent defense together and hold down the Illini enough to where the O can prevail. Ohio State by 8.
#10 Boise State (9-0) at Idaho (2-8). We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again, BSU owns the WAC. Idaho averages giving up 42 points per game while BSU averages giving up only 10. This could be ugly. Broncos by 28.
#11 Oklahoma State (8-2) at Colorado (5-5). It’s really not clear what happened to the Cowboys last week against Texas Tech, especially in light of the fact that they beat Missouri and played to within 4 of Texas. Losing 56-20 was something that no one expected. As a result, Oklahoma State is playing for pride now, and it starts this week against the Buffaloes, who can, at any time, put together a complete game. Colorado has lost its past three conference games against ranked teams by a margin of 126-28, and the Buffs have won four of the past six meetings with OSU, but the teams haven’t met since 2005. We think that OSU will get back on track, and beat Colorado to set up the showdown in the season finale against rival Oklahoma. Cowboys by 10.
#12 Missouri (8-2) at Iowa State (2-8). The Tigers have the Big-12 North title in their sights, and the Cyclones, who have lost 8 straight, seem to only be a small bump in the road. Chase Daniels should have a field day. Tigers by 32.
#13 Georgia (8-2) at Auburn (5-5). The Bulldogs need to finish strong to possibly get a tier 2 bowl like the Cotton. Auburn has lost 4 of their last 5 games (they won last week against Tenn-Martin), and pretty much have looked bad in all cases. Georgia, still boasts a great defense and more than adequate offense. Matt Stafford is already weighing his options for NFL draft time (with the weak QB class this year he could easily go in the first 5 picks). A couple of great performances against Auburn and Georgia Tech woud look really good on his resume. Thats alot of motivation. Georgia by 24.
#14 TCU (9-2) is idle.
#15 Brigham Young (9-1) at Air Force (8-2). This should turn out to be one of the more enjoyable games of the day. There’s something about Air Force that brings out the best in BYU. The Cougars have won the past four meetings by an average margin of almost 21 points. BYU isnt any weaker this year, but Air Force is a stonger team. Nevertheless, BYU’s loss to TCU ruined what could have been a BCS kind of year, so the Cougars are looking to look good late. We think that should happen. BYU by 18.
#16 Michigan State (9-2) is idle.
#17 LSU (6-3) hosts Troy (6-3). LSU is just going through a tough time this year. While the defense has been, for the most part, admirable, the offense just has been dismal. We keep reminding ourselves that Jarret Lee, the Sophomore QB from Brenham, TX, has had limited time behind the the LSU offense that lost so many talented players to the NFL. But, the numbers sure dont favor Troy in the game. LSU has won 24 straight nonconference games in Tiger Stadium. It has also won 17 consecutive nonconference games overall. But, because of the LSU offense, we just have to pull back on our tendency to think this will be a run away. LSU by 10.
#18 Ball State (10-0) defeated Miami (OH) (2-8) 31-16 in Ohio. In rare Tuesday night game, this game has already been played. No surpise that Ball State won. They’ll play again next Wednesday against Central Michigan.
#19 North Carolina (7-2) at Maryland (6-3). NC has been up and down this year, but still has managed to work themselves to the top of the ACC Coastal Division, a game ahead of Virginia Tech. But all signs point to a possible upset. The Terps have been tough at home this season with a perfect 5-0 mark, outscoring teams by a 153-82 margin. They’re also 3-0 against the Top 25. This bodes no good for the Tar Heels. This game seems to be perfect for an Upset Watch game, and we’re going so far as to say Maryland pulls it off. Terps by 6.
#20 Pittsburgh (7-2) is idle.
#21 Florida State (7-2) hosts Boston College (6-3). Here’s another ACC showdown FSU, like North Carolina, precariously finds itself at the top of its Atlantic Division only a game ahead of Wake Forest, Maryland and Boston College. A BC win here coupled with a Terp win, could reall hose things up really good for the ACC. The running game should decide this one. BC is allowing a shade less than 102 rushing ypg, but Florida State owns one of the nation’s best rushing offenses (205 ypg). This one also goes on Upset Watch, but we’ll take the Seminoles and the home field. Florida State by 4.
#22 Cincinnati (7-2) at Louisville (5-4). The Big East seems to be the conference of the also rans this year. No team has managed to set a winning streak, with the possible exception of Pittsburgh lately. Now come the Bearcats and their lineup of the day charging into Papa John’s Park to face an ever unpredictable Louisville team that at any moment can nail an opponent to the wall like they did to South Florida. The Bearcats haven’t had much success against Louisville in recent seasons. The Cards have won nine of the past 10 meetings against Cincinnati, including five straight. Another Upset Watch game here where literally anything could happen. Cincy by 4.
#23 Tulsa (8-1) at Houston (5-4). Tulsa won the C-USA’s West Division in 2005 and 2007, while the Cougars won it in 2006. The winner of this game should get the inside track to clinching the West. Tulsa is just playing better, and with the top rated offense in the country, should have little trouble with Cougars. Tulsa by 17.
#24 South Carolina (7-3) at #3 Florida (8-1). See analysis above. Florida by 18.
#25 Virginia Tech (6-3) at Miami (6-3). Its anyone’s guess how the ACC Coastal will go, with no fewer than four of the six teams are still in contention. The Hokies are playing much better ball here right now, despite losing 2 of their last 3. Does that tell you how its going in the ACC-C ? Miami is on a 4-game winning streak including victories over Wake Forest and Virginia. It should turn out to be Miami’s passing game against VT’s rushing attack. So would we put the Hokies in the T25 and pick against them the following week? Yep. Miami by 10.
