Triskaidekaphobia – irrational fear of the number 13.
This being the 13th week of the season, it seems a bit fitting that the biggest games of the season are being played this week end. No other weekend so far has had the potential to set the direction of the BCS as this one. It also seems rather superstitious that so many teams (7) scheduled idle weeks. Something to this number 13?
Of course, the paramount game of the week will be Texas Tech-Oklahoma. A few weeks ago the Texas Tech-Texas game in prime time was big (largest TV audience to ever view a non-bowl game, and the 5th most watched in college TV history), just wait till Saturday at 8pm ET. The winner of this game, providing they cane win their final game, has the inside track to the national title game against the winner of the SEC.
Lest we not be too biased, there are several other games that have lesser overall impact, but certainly are important in shaping the BCS bowl picture. Penn State-Michigan State could clinch the Rose for the Nittany Lions or send Ohio State or get Michigan State the bid. Utah and BYU will inevitably battle fot MWAC supremacy, while TCU and Air Force try to throw a monkey in the works.
So here are the games and our analysis/predictions:
#1 Alabama (11-0). Idle.
#2 Texas Tech (10-0) at #4 Oklahoma (9-1). This one should be a doozy. Two offensive juggernauts go after it in primetime. Oklahoma averages 51 point per game while TTU averages 48. Never mind those worthless stats that TTU has won 2 of the last 3 meetings, or OU is 50-2 at home. With this level of a game, and these players, they only serve as mere oddities. The facts are, plain and simple, OU hasn’t played a competitive team all year except Texas, and lost to them, a team that Tech dominated in the first half, and then rallied to win all too easy in the last 1:29. Tech has had the harder schedule and prevailed with the best defense in the Big-12. However, let’s not kid ourselves. Both teams WILL score on each other. Well, that’s what we thought in the Tech-Oklahoma State game, too. The game will be won on the lines. If Texas Tech can control the line of scrimmage, as they have the last two games, and are able to drop the two DBs back, that could spell an 11th win, and a Big-12 conference South title. If not, this game decays into an offensive aerial attack and turnovers or lack of execution will rule the day. All the intangibles seem to lean toward OU, the home field advantage, coaching experience, etc, but we think that OU just won’t be able to score enough. Red Raiders by 7.
#3 Florida (9-1) hosts The Citadel (4-7). Florida is 13-0 against The Citadel all time. The Gators have finished SEC play until they meet Alabama in the Championship. They also have one more game after The Citadel where they must play Florida State. Does anyone really give the Bulldogs a chance? Well, no. Gators by 39.
#4 Oklahoma (9-1) hosts #2 Texas Tech (10-0). See above. Texas Tech by 7.
#5 Texas (9-1) . Idle.
#6 USC (9-1). Idle.
#7 Utah (11-0) hosts #15 Brigham Young (10-1). Quite simply, the game means everything for both of these teams. BYU got thumped hard a few weeks ago by TCU, thus dashing their hopes to be the BCS buster. Now The Cougars could return the favor against Utah. BYU, with Max Hall, is playing at the top of his game now, and is hard to stop. Utah on the other hand took care of TCU, barely, and now needs THIS game to assure them of a BCS Bowl. Right off the bat, we’re putting this one on Upset Watch, because Utah just hasn’t seen an attack like BYU’s. However, BYU probably hasn’t played much against a good solid defense like Utah. We’re gonna go out on a limb and pick the upset here this week. BYU by 3.
#8 Penn State (10-1) hosts Michigan State (9-2). Another game with huge BCS implications. The Nittany Lions need only to win at home to gain a trip to the Rose Bowl. If not, its nip and tuck where they go. This was probably the best they could ask for this year, even had they been undefeated. If MSU pulls the upset, then Ohio State goes to the Rose Bowl instead. We think that the Lions will gather all motivation and dominate in this game. MSU does have a stretch. If they do manage to win and do their part, they must hope Michigan beats Ohio State, which would send the Spartans to Pasadena. Unlikely tho. Penn State by 17.
#9 Ohio State (9-2) hosts Michigan (3-8). Never mind the records. Never mind Rich Rodriguez’ quips to the fans, or what’s gone on this year. When these two teams meet, they both might as well be 12-0, because they’ll play like it. Michigan is coming off the worst season since maybe Noah and the Ark. OSU has won 4 straight over Michigan, but has NEVER won 5 in their school history. Don’t think for a moment it couldn’t happen. Ohio State’s offense still is sputtering, but what will keep them equalized is their defense. We can’t see the Wolverines suddenly finding and executing the new offense they’ve tried all season. So, we’ll still side with the Buckeyes. Ohio State by 10.
#10 Boise State (10-0) at Nevada (6-4). Actually this could be quite an interesting game, if Nevada executes. First, BSU has great history against Nevada, winning 69-67 last year. Secondly, the game isn’t being play on the Smurf Turf, which is decidedly pro-Bronco. But BSU just plain rules the WAC, and in order to stay in the hunt for a BCS Championship, they have to win. If so, they almost certainly get a bid to the Orange or Sugar Bowl as an at large entry, since they are head and shoulders above two BCS conference champs. We’re pretty sure the score won’t get that high this year, and it wont be that close. Boise State by 17.
#11 Oklahoma State (9-2). Idle.
#12 MIssouri (9-2). Idle.
#13 Georgia (9-2). Idle.
#14 TCU (9-2) hosts Air Force (8-3). TCU has played extremely well this year, losing only to Oklahoma early, and Utah. In all practical purposes, they are headed for the Armed Forces Bowl. A BYU win over Utah would most certainly move the Cougars up over them, and Utah would probably not drop that far. The Falcons own the nation’s No. 4 rushing attack, but will face the country’s stingiest defense against the run. On the line for Air Force is a possible share of the MWC title. TCU leads the all-time series with Air Force 4-2-1, but that means little. We are putting this one on Upset Watch, and think there’s a decent chance Air Force might catch the Frogs sleeping. The Frogs still may want to prove something so that and the home field have us leaning that way. TCU by 6.
#15 Brigham Young (10-1) at #7 Utah (11-0). See above. BYU by 3.
#16 Michigan State (9-2) at #8 Penn State (10-1). See above. Penn State by 17.
#17 Ball State (10-0) at Central Michigan (8-2), As in past years, this is a battle for the MAC West title, well, for Central Michigan it is. If the Cheppewas win they win the West by virtue of beating both Western Michigan and Ball State. If the Cardinals win, however they must win the next week against W. Mich, to take the title. C. Mich has been the traditional power house here, but all the attention has been on Nate Davis and the Cardinals being ranked in the top 20. But the Chippewas have quite a talented QB also, Dan LeFevour. Played in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan, this one should be quite a battle, but we’re pretty sure Ball State will prevail in a close one. Cardinals by 7.
#18 LSU (7-3) hosts Mississippi (6-4). Wow! Almost any other year we’d already be trying to figure out how Ol Miss could keep close, but this year’s version fo the Bayou Bengals just isnt as ferocious, especially on offense. It’s anyone’s guess how he might perform from week to week. Even in the good years, its been tough for LSU. The Tigers have taken six in a row against the Rebels overall, but won the past three at home by a combined seven points. So, this year it could be close. We’ll still give the edge to the home team, with an Upset Watch but wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers have to struggle again like they did against Troy last week. LSU by 2.
#19 Pittsburgh (7-2) at #20 Cincinnati (8-2). And here comes the home stretch for the Big East. Both Pitt and Cincy can’t win the East by winning this game, but they are certainly on the inside track if they do. Pitt has won all seven meetings with Cincinnati, including three games since the Bearcats joined the Big East. The Bearcats have been nothing short of miraculous in piecing a team together after some key injuries. Statistically you compare the two teams and its nearly identical. Total yards per game average is within 1/10th of a point. Our intuition moves us to nod toward Cincy, perhaps because of their passing game recently. Cincinnti by 3.
#20 Cincinnati (8-2) hosts Pittsburgh (7-2). See above. Cincinnati by 3.
#21 Oregon (7-3) Idle.
#22 Miami (7-3) at Georgia Tech (7-3) Thursday. The streaking Hurricanes (winner of their last 5) invade Atlanta to try to move a step closer to an ACC Coastal title. The Yellow Jackets are in a must-win situation to stay in contention for the title. They have won three straight against the Hurricanes and lead the all-time series 9-4. But this is a new year and a new mindset in Miami under Randy Shannon, who very well could be considered coach of the year should he get to a BCS Bowl by winning the ACC. Before then, he and his team must stop a GT team thats surely talented, but inconsistent (Lost to Virginia, beat Florda State, then lost to North Carolina). The Jackets continue to have a decent defense, but the speed of the Miami defense is amazing. We’re reasonably confident that the boys from Florida will extend their streak. Miami by 8.
#23 Oregon State (7-3) at Arizona (6-3). Plain and simple. every game is a must game for the Beavers who are looking for their first trip to the Rose Bowl since the late 60’s. To do so, they must beat Arizona and then win out against Oregon. This is a daunting task. Arizona, who is bowl eligible, has played all Pac-10 opponents tough. They lost their conference losses by a grand total of 18 points (6 pts per game). History is on the side of the Beavers, however, as they’ve won the past 9 meetings. We’re putting this one on Upset Watch, and think there is a really good chance for a Wildcat win. However, if the Beavers can establish a running game, Arizona will be playing catch up all night. Oregon State by 4.
#24 Maryland (7-3) hosts Florida State (7-3). Maybe Maryland should pretend Florida State is ranked. After all, the Terps have won four games this season against ranked foes. And with two more victories, Maryland will be ACC Atlantic champion. Florida State leads the all-time series with Maryland 16-2, and desperately needs to win after getting popped by Boston College last week. Maryland has the ability to put points on the board and we think that’s the way it goes. Terapins by 14.
#25 Boston College (7-3) at Wake Forest (6-4). It’s Wake’s passing game versus BC’s rushing attack, which is hard for us to say, but only because we still are looking for Matt Ryan when the Eagles take the field. We are putting this one on Upset Watch. because of this obvious battle. When WF has stumbled, its been the pass not the run that’s sunk them. We think that the Demon Deacons could very well force BC into a passing game with a 50% passer…and thats not good. Wake Forest by 4.
Enjoy the Games!!
