Well folks we’re back again for another college football season! This is the third year that we’ve published our weekly blog and analysis each week. Those of you that followed us in the past, welcome back. Those of you that are new, please bookmark us and return each week where we’ll review the weekend’s games, publish a new Top 25, and then hit the upcoming games of the week.
The 2009 season should be a real interesting one. Many teams are looking to build on last year’s successes while other are trying to hold on to past successes. With that, we present our Pre-Season Top 25 Kathman-Patton Rankings1.
1. Florida
The first thing that jumps out at you about the 2009 vintage of the Florida Gators is their list of starters that are returning. The second is their schedule. Both make it easy to put the Gators as the odds-on favorite to return to the Championship game in January, 2010.
Heisman winner Tim Tebow returns as arguably the most important player to his team in the NCAA. Losing Percy Harvin will be a blow, but Riley Cooper, David Nelson, and Deonte Thompson will join developing senior WR Carl Moore to provide a top notch WR crew. What does strike you as daunting is the return of every single defensive player. Last year this defense posted 26 interceptions which led the NCAA and posted a +22 turnover margin. They were 4th in the nation in scoring defense and 9th in total defense. And they are faster.
But this year Florida has a much easier schedule than last. Only three preseason top 25 teams are on their schedule: LSU, Georgia and Florida State. The LSU game on 10/10 will be the challenge as its on the road. There’s no Old Miss this year to ruin a perfect season and the rest of the schedule is pedestrian at best.
Key games: Tennessee (9/19), @LSU (10/10), Georgia (Jacksonville)(10/31), Florida State (11/28).
2. Texas
By all means, had it not been for Michael Crabtree’s tiptoes and body control with moment’s left in the game, UT’s fortunes would have undeniably changed. They would have won the Big-12 and gone on to play Florida in the National Championship. As it was, Texas Tech pulled the upset, and the Big-12’s ridiculous tiebreaker went into effect and hardly anyone was happy except OU, who lost in the title game to Florida. Texas didn’t even go to the Big-12 title game despite beating Oklahoma AND Missouri by double digits. Something was definitely wrong.
Texas has no such threat this year outside it’s Red-River companion, who they play on 10/17. Colt McCoy, who came in second behind Sam Bradford at OU, is back after an NCAA Division I single-season record 76.7 percentage completions, 34 TDs and almost 4000 yards. What people don’t realize is the McCoy also led the team in rushing Even without WR Quan Cosby, Texas shouldn’t lose a beat. Jordan Shipley, who led the Longhorns with 1060 eards and 11 TDs will return and so is RB Cody Johnson who lead the team in rushing TDs with 12. There were key defensive losses however in Brian Orakpo and Rashad Bobino. But the defensive backs are unmistakably great. The Texas D led the Big-12 in points allowed and Total Defense in 2008.
Key games: Texas Tech (9/19), Oklahoma (in Dallas) (10/17), @Oklahoma State (10/31).
3. Oklahoma
The perennial bridesmaid of the NCAA Oklahoma Sooners sneaked into the Championship game yet again last year through the sheer will of the pollsters and the fact that they had scored 60 or more points five weeks in a row. Heisman winner Sam Bradford was close to perfection throwing a NCAA leading 50 TD passes and passing for 4720 yards. He also threw more than 300 yards in every game he played, which is pretty amazing. Chris Brown returns from his 1220 yards rushing in 2008, along with DeMarco Murray. However, the trouble area for the Sooners will be their offensive line which has only one returning starter, so it’s likely that the OU offense won’t be able to match their 2008 stats, but there’s no reason why they’ll not contend for the Big-12 championship again, especially since their defense has 8 starters back from a year ago when they were 3rd in the Big 12 in total defense and 2nd in points allowed. Still, the defense could be the weakest link.
Schedule wise they have only 3 challenging games, and only one is on the road, Nebraska. The Sooners are a whopping 60-2 at home under Bob Stoops.
Key games: Texas (at Dallas) (10/17), @Nebraska (11/7) Oklahoma State (11/28)
4. Alabama
A humbling loss to a non-BCS Utah Utes team, who wholeheartedly deserved the bid, ended an otherwise impressive season for the Crimson Tide. Under coach Nick Saban, Alabama, 8-0 in SEC play, made it all the way to the SEC title game before losing to Florida, so 2009 should hold great promise, if they can plug seven starters into the offense, including a QB. Greg McElroy and Star Jackson will compete for the starting job there. Either will enjoy throwing to returning WR Julio Jones who should be on the radar for All-American. Mark Ingram will take over the starting RB job from Glen Coffee who made the jump to the NFL. What’s good news is that 9 of 12 are back on defense which was #1 in total Defense in the SEC in 2008 and #3 in the nation. After the opening weekend against Virginia Tech, Alabama cruises until LSU at home on 11/7, which could again be for the SEC West title and a berth in the SEC Championship.
Key games: Virginia Tech (in Atlanta) (9/5), LSU (11/7)
5. Ole Miss
Houston Nutt for years has been a miracle worker and Ole Miss was no different in 2008, going from winless in SEC play to a 9-4 season including a shellacking of Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl. Junior QB Jevan Snead comes off a 2008 performance that included 26 touchdowns and a passing efficiency that ranked him 3rd in the SEC. Dexter McCluster will be a potent back as well as receiver. The defense, led by Greg Hardy and Kendrick Lewis should be improved also. The Rebels also are the beneficiary of a very kind schedule having only two top 25 teams to worry about: Alabama and LSU, and both are home games.
Key games: Alabama (10/10), LSU (11/21)
6. Virginia Tech
A lot of pundits will look at the 2008 statistics for junior QB Tyrod Taylor and see that he threw for 2 TDs and 7 interceptions, then promptly write VT out of any chance to do much better this year. In fact the VT offense in the past three years has ranked 103rd, 100th and 99th in the nation. That’s not saying much. However, the Hokies were 9-4, ACC Champions, and winners of the Orange Bowl over a perceived superior opponent, Cincinnati. As usual it was the defense that sparkled and that should not be any different this year. But offensively Darren Evans, who gained 1265 yards last year and scored 11 times, returns and the freshman wide receivers that Taylor threw to, are a year older and year wiser. VT did aggressively pursue a tough non-conference schedule that includes an opener against Alabama in Atlanta and home against Nebraska two weeks later. If they can come through those unscathed, VT might be looking at moving up into a title contender role.
Key games: Alabama (Atlanta)(9/5), Nebraska (9/19), @Georgia Tech (10/17), North Carolina (10/29).
7. Ohio State
The Buckeyes will again be one of the big 2 in the Big 10 this year, and will again compete against Penn State for bragging rights, but both will have to prove themselves on a national stage. For OSU that starts week 2 when they host USC in Columbus. For Jim Tressel it will be the biggest game of the year most likely. Sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor returns from an up and down year in 2008, where he showed brilliance at times (especially when running) but was disappointing when he succumbed to pressure and an inability to push the ball downfield with an effective passing game. Beanie Wells is gone, and they will need replacements for seven offensive starters, but the defense will be largely in tact, less last year’s stars James Laurinitis and Marcus Freeman. The Buckeyes sported the #3 defense in the Big 10 and #6 overall in the country in Points allowed.
Key games: USC (9/12), @Penn State (11/7), Iowa (11/14)
8. USC
With the departure of Mark Sanchez to the NFL, the Trojans will need to break in a new quarterback this coming year one way or another. USC has three ready to take over the reigns, including Senior Mitch Mustain, the former Arkansas QB. Also vying for the position are Junior Aaron Corp and Freshman Matt Barkley. They will also be trying to find replacements for a quartet of linebackers and recasting the front four, so it’s unlikely they’ll be heading into games like rock stars. For the first time in a while, USC has something to prove. People may sneer at our analysis, given the annual parade of talent through the gates, but the huge backlash that followed last year’s loss to the Beavers, which pollsters treated as if it were a 50-point defeat at the hands of Columbia, was enough to prove to the Trojans that mistakes can’t be tolerated. It’s either perfection or nothing at USC.
However, they will have a host of returning talent also, in the form of a killer trio of running backs: Joe McKnight, C.J. Gables and Stafon Johnson. Senior WR Damien Williams might be the go-to receiver. Senior All-America safety Taylor Mays leads a defense that has a long way to go to match last year’s model, which held 10 teams to 10 or fewer points.
Schedule-wise, USC gets an early test in week 2 at Columbus against Ohio State and it doesn’t get easier. The Pac-10 looks to be very strong this year, so if USC gets by Oregon, Cal, Oregon State, Arizona and then takes care of Notre Dame, their strength of schedule could propel them into the National Championship, especially since their biggest games are all on the road.
Key games: @Ohio State (9/12), @ Cal (10/3), @Notre Dame (10/17), @Oregon (10/31), Arizona (12/5).
9. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys can no longer fly under the radar. After a successful 2008 campaign that came up short against key opponents, a target is now painted on their collective chest, so the pressure becomes greater and the expectations are larger. This means head coach Mike Gundy will still have to prove he is a man, and at age 42, he is ready for the challenge. This will be the first time in a very long time that OSU will carry these types of expectations. You’ll notice that OSU is our third Big-12 South team to be ranked in the top 10. Make no mistake however, when a team such as this returns the likes of Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter, Dez Bryant and six other returning starters to the nation’s seventh ranked offense, a lofty preseason ranking has to be warranted. The biggest question remains however – can the defensive backfield solve its horrific problems (Ranked 110th nationally) with a group that lost most of its composition? Only senior Perrish Cox is back in the fold.
With the downgrading of the Tech defense and possibly their offense this year, the title of offensive juggernaut could soon rest with Robinson and the boys. The QB continues to define the true essence of “dual-threat”. Over the past two seasons he has racked up 1,355 yards rushing and 5,559 yards passing. Through his prosperity, others such as young RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant have drawn big attention nationally (All-American candidates). Defensively the front seven remains in place. They held their own stopping the run, and their aggressive style of play is a refreshing concept for the Big 12. Their schedule is a typical nightmare having to play all the Big-12 South teams, but outside of the games against Texas and OU, the Cowboys might just be making lots of noise it they manage to upset one of them.
Key games: Texas (10/31), Texas Tech (11/14), @Oklahoma (11/28)
10. California
Each year in the Pac-10 the question is always who is going to give USC the hardest time. The answer for 2009 will be Cal. The Golden Bears are still a far cry from being able to wrestle away a conference crown from the Pac Ten bully Trojans, but there should be adequate cause for concern. Coach Tedford is noted as a developer of quarterbacks, but it is the running back that has been the hallmark of his Cal teams of late. First Team All-Conference back Jahvid Best literally rushed onto the national scene and became Tedford’s seventh-consecutive 1,000-yard ground gainer. His quality backup Shane Vereen gives Cal a legitimate one-two punch. QB Kevin Riley survived a mid-season benching, but he won’t be looking over his shoulder so much now that Nate Longshore has moved on. Riley is not a bad scrambler, but he is not the type of Golden Bear signal caller that is going to beat other teams solely with his arm (51% completion rate). His best arm may be the one handing off the ball. What could be a problem offensively will be trying to fill the big shoes up front. The Bears moved from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive alignment this past season had to do with the wealth of quality linebackers. This is the one area that is going to need more work. Strength in numbers up front and could force another move back to the four-man line. The secondary should be fine; Senior Syd’Quan Thompson heads a speedy group capable of shutting down many of the conferences’ better passing games. The corner spot is well stocked and the group as a whole is full of veterans. The schedule for Cal is challenging, seeing that the Pac-10 is chock full of possibilities this year. They’ll need to pull some upsets to get to a BCS bid though.
Key games: @Oregon (9/26), USC (10/3), Arizona (11/14)
11. LSU
We need to be honest. LSU could have been a dominating football team in 2008, if for only one thing: They had a very poor offense. QB Jarrett Lee just didn’t measure up. They found a worthy replacement albeit late in the season from Jordan Jefferson who was the star in the Tigers’ thrashing of Georgia Tech in the Chik-Fil-A Bowl. He’ll be the starter, but will be up against some very big odds. However returning RB Charles Scott, who proved a pleasant surprise last year, will tandem with two other returners, Keiland Williams and Trindon Holliday to provide for what is sure to be major fireworks. LSU lost talented OLs Herman Johnson and Brett Helms, but filling these posts to add to Barksdale, Hitt and Black should be a non issue. They’ll be huge too, all between 285 and 325, so look for a solid running game and good protection. They’ll be loaded at WR with three returners (Brandon Lafell, Chris Mitchell and Terrance Tolliver). So if Jefferson matures even a little, the offense is bound to be orders of magnitude better. Defensively they’ll need to fill some key positions vacated by Tyson Jackson and Darry Beckwith, but D-coach John Chavis thinks that Chancey Agahayere and Jacob Cutrera will be just those guys. There are still are some questions in the secondary, but over all they should also be better than the 2008 edition. But perhaps the most challenging barrier this year will be their schedule. The Tigers must play four preseason top 15 teams: Georgia, Florida, Alabama and Ole Miss, and only the Florida game is at home. OUCH.
Key games: @Georgia (10/3), Florida (10/10), @Alabama(11/7), @Miss (11/21)
12. Oregon
The Ducks come off a successful 10-win season, capped off by a bowl win over Oklahoma State. The good news is that they return some very talented skill players on both offense and defense, but there are many unresolved questions. The first of which is new coach Chip Kelly who takes over from Mike Bellotti who not only defined the new era of Oregon Football, but has stepped up to the AD spot and handpicked Kelly for the successor. That’s some immense pressure, even if Kelly was the former offensive coordinator. The offense, meantime is loaded with QB Jeremiah Masoli and RB LaGarrette Blount, but they’ll be operating behind a largely unproven and young offensive line. The defense last year was mediocre at best, and absolutely terrible against the pass, which can be deadly in the Pac-10. Walter Thurmond III is healthy again though and should help the secondary, and the linebackers look to be one of the best groups in the conference. Schedule wise, it’s the Pac-10 which means any title hope go through USC. But this year add Cal, Arizona and Oregon State as hurdles. Add to this that they have to play both Boise State and Utah as non-conference games and you have a heck of a schedule challenge!
Key games: @Boise State (9/3), Utah (9/19), Cal (9/26), USC (10/31), @Arizona(10/21), Oregon State (12/3)
13. Penn State
There are lots of things to be excited about in State College for 2009. The Nittany Lions are coming off an 11-2 season. All Big-10 QB Darryll Clark and RB Evan Royster are both returning. They sport one of the softest non-conference schedules in the country, and the two biggest Big-10 foes, Ohio State and Iowa, must come to Happy Valley to play. But after that it gets really iffy.
PSU has only five returning offensive starters, and four defensive starters. They lost three of their top four receivers in school history, graduating Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams. This spells an extra load for Royster, but in back of a largely new and untested offensive line. Defensively PSU will have a strong LB corps but will need to replace the two starting defensive ends (on was Aaron Maybin who went to the NFL). While the Nittany Lion’s schedule isn’t a pass through the SEC, they’ll have trips to Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State, not to mention Minnesota (they return 18 starters from a 7-win season last year).
Key games: Iowa (9/26), Illinois (10/3), Minnesota (11/17), Ohio State (11/7).
14. Georgia
The Bulldogs seem to have the “always a bridesmaid never a bride” syndrome. They won 10 games last year and in the last 8 years they’ve won 82. Yet, they can’t seem to get to that elusive conference title game. Well, possibly because Florida and LSU seem to always tie it up. This year will prove even more challenging without the likes QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno leaving early for the NFL (both 1st round draft picks)
So, this year the offense will need to find someone to fill those shoes and they aren’t really any certainties. Joe Cox will likely take over the helm at QB and be backed by a stable of RBs including Sophomore Caleb King. The good news is that Georgia will again be blessed with an awesome offensive line anchored by OT Trinton Sturdivant (Soph) and Clink Boling, Jr. WR A.J. Green will probably be the go-to receiver. Defensively Junior LB Rennie Curran leads a very talented linebacking corps. Strong safety Reshad Jones should also be a decent playmaker.
Schedule for the Dawgs is tough but not overbearing. In fact it might not be enough to help them in any kind of title chase. They open against our #9 Oklahoma State on the road and then have a reasonably light SEC schedule. They’ll probably get their 10 wins, but they may struggle in doing it.
Key games: @Okla St (9/5), LSU (10/3), @Tenn (10/10) Florida (Jacksonville) (10/31), @Ga Tech (11/28)
15. Boise State
Boise State qualifies as the top contender for the Rodney Dangerfield “I Don’t Get No Respect” award. After ten years, 108 wins, three unbeaten regular seasons in the last five, the nation’s best home-field record over the last ten years, the nation’s highest winning percentage over the last decade and a 2007 Fiesta Bowl win over OU, you would have thought they might get a little more hoopla. Well apparently not. And it sucks.
There is a lot of rebuilding to be done this year but there is lots of talent to ready to step up. They’ll sport easily the best defense in the WAC and one of the best in the country with the likes of CB Kyle Wilson, DE Ryan Winterswyk and FS Jeron Johnson. They will be in need of filling some holes at WR but Austin Pettis and Titus Young seem poised to do well. They may also have the best special teams in the country.
BSU will again need to excel highly, but doing that didn’t help them last year when Ohio State got the Fiesta Bowl bid instead of them. Their schedule admittedly won’t be title quality, but they do open against Pac-10 contender Oregon, which could set the tone for the rest of the season.
Key games: Oregon (9/3), @Fresno State (9/18), Nevada (11/27).
16. TCU
Gary Patterson has forged a tremendous defensive program at TCU over the years, but last year was exceptional. Of the 14 games they played in 2008, only two teams scored more than 14 points against them: Oklahoma (35) and Boise State (16). They won the latter. Had TCU been able to make a FG in their game against Utah, they might have been BCS bowl hunting instead. Consider also that the offense last year averaged 220 rushing yards per game and 201 passing…a near perfect balance. TCU has five double-digit win seasons in the last 8.
The Frogs should be even more explosive on offense this year. Andy Dalton will be throwing to a group of very fast receivers headed by Jimmy Young and Jeremy Kerley and have the benefit of a big talented O-Line. Defensively there are challenges with holes to be filled at DT LB and safety. But Jerry Hughes, Daryl Washington and Tejay Johnson should be more than adequate replacements.
There’s not much reason to think TCU won’t go 11-1 this year and possibly 12-0 if they can get by BYU on the road.
Key games: @Virginia (9/12), at BYU (10/24), Utah (11/14)
17. Utah
The Utes come off, arguably, their best season ever, going 13-0 including a 31-17 smashing of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. If nothing else, the country took notice that a non-BCS team could, in fact, throttle and dominate a BCS team, and deserved to be in the bowl game. However, it’s unlikely that Utah will be able to repeat their massive success this year with 11 starters gone, including kicker/punter Louie Sakoda. But, Utah has been building over the past five years under Kyle Whittingham (37-14) and sources close to the club say that the talent level has never been higher and indeed this year could be as good or better.
Offensively, Junior QB Corbin Louks will need to step up and fill the big shoes of Brian Johnson, but on his heels will be National JUCO Offensive Player of the Year Terrance Cain. In either case, both are styled to be a dual threat to pass and run. Louks will probably get the nod early, but leadership wise he’ll need to really step it up. Senior RB Matt Asiata, the team’s leader rusher is back, but he’ll be the main workhorse this year instead of sharing that duty with Darrell Mack, so the question here will be if he can manage more than 20 touches per game, something he didn’t do last year. Alona Key, another JUCO superstar transfer is a 6’4”, 195-pound Senior and former Boise State Bronco. WR David Reed will also make a major impact. The O-line get’s enough people back to be solid, lead by Zane Beadles. Defensively, Utah seems in decent shape with All-America quality Senior LB Stevenson Sylvester returning. The DL will be fast and strong with Koa Misi and Lei Talamalvao anchoring a solid line. Questions do arise at CB and the ability to get an interior pass rush.
The Utes will have a crucial game early at Oregon to see where they are on the National scale, and then must navigate a tough road schedule in the MWAC games to see if they can repeat what they did last year.
Key games: @Oregon (9/19), Air Force (10/24), @TCU (11/14), @BYU (11/28).
18. Notre Dame
It got pretty ugly at ND last year and it almost ended with the firing of Charlie Weiss. He’s is in his 5th year and barely above water, thanks to a couple of BCS-caliber years. This has to be the breakout year for Weiss, or he’ll be looking, as the Irish are loaded with talent, and blessed with a favorable schedule.
While the offense in 2008 wasn’t bad, it should have been better, especially seeing that most were Weiss’ recruits. Junior QB Jimmy Clausen will return off a respectable 3172-yard, 25-TD year. Leading rusher Armondo Allen is back (134 carries/585 yards) and their leading receiver, Junior Golden Tate is a returner (58 catches/1060 yards/10 TD). With only one big hole to fill at left tackle (Paul Duncan), they should be in great shape, if Clausen can step up his game. TE Kyle Rudolph could be a unsung hero. Defensively, they are experienced and fast. Senior SS Kyle McCarthy might be All-American, and Junior DT Iam Williams is already an NFL-quality lineman. They’ll need to improve on the pass russ and concentrate on not giving up big plays, like they did last year.
A relatively easy schedule blesses the Irish, even getting USC at home this year. If ND is able to put up big numbers, look for a BCS bowl.
Key games: @Purdue (9/26), USC (10/17), UConn (11/21).
19. North Carolina
Butch Davis and John Blake have done wonders the last few years showing that roundball isn’t the only sport at UNC. In the past two seasons, the Tar Heels have gone bowling and there’s no sign that will change. Much will depend on an offense that was inconsistent in 2008, but has tremendous potential. QB T.J. Yates and Junior WR Greg Little will provide great excitement, while Dwight Jones, Joshua Adam, Rashad Mason and Todd Harrelson could be major contributors. Defensively, though, this is a strong team. The pass rush is loaded with strength and speed. DT Marvin Austin and LBs Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter anchor a star studded defense along with CB Kendric Burney and S Daunta Williams in the secondary.
UNC has a tough ACC schedule, as usual, with road games at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.
Key games: @Georgia Tech (9/26), Florida State (10/22), @Virginia Tech (10/29).
20. Iowa
In its first six games of the 2008 campaign, Iowa was 3-3 and fans began looking forward to 2009 and a possible regime change. However, they won 6 of their last 7 games including wins over Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue and Minnesota. A 31-10 Outback Bowl win over South Carolina completed a come back season and a 9-4 mark. Furthermore, in games decided by 5 points or less, Iowa was 2-4 and were in the running in all 4 of the losses. In essence they were 12 points away from an undefeated season.
Iowa returns a solid set of veterans, and most experienced teams tend to win those close ones. RB Shonn Greene is gone, but Jewel Hampton brings a new kind of back behind a good O-line. While Greene was more of a power runner, Hampton, a sophomore, has more speed and quickness. Greene ran the ball 307 times last year and Hampton won’t be able to do that, so it could be that returning Junior FB Brett Morse will need to step up. WB Marvin McNutt looks to make an impact, and will need to. On Defense, LB Pat Angerer is the spotlight player. Iowa will field a strong run defense, but lack of pass rush due to DT’s size may play havoc.
Iowa has a brutal Big-10 road schedule have to travel to Penn State Ohio State, and Wisconsin. That could be their undoing, but look for them to win at least one of those.
Key games: @Penn State (9/26), @Wisconsin (10/17), @Ohio State (11/14).
21. BYU
You have to love a team that has a head coach named “Bronco”. Mendenhall is in his 5th year (38-13) and would love to have a better ending than last year’s loss to Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl. Losses to conference rivals TCU and Utah, were the other two losses on the road to a 10-3 season. Offensively only four starters are returning, but Senior QB Max Hall will be back after his 3957-yard, 35-TD season of a year ago. Junior RB Harvey Unga (240 carries/1132 yards, 11 TDs) returns also. Dennis Pitta also is back after a respectable 1000+yard season in 2008. The O-Line will need bolstering, but that should be no problem. On Defense, Senior LB Matt Bauman led the team in tackles last year and with DE Jan Jorgensen, should anchor a very solid defense.
BYU should improve this year with the slight fall of Utah. It will be between them and TCU, who they get at home, for the MWAC supremacy. An early home game test against Florida State in week 2 should provide a nice barometer of things to come.
Key games: Florida State (9/19), TCU (10/24), Utah (11/28)
22. Nebraska
People soon forget that the Cornhuskers improved mightily in 2008 going a very respectable 9-4 including a Gator Bowl win against Clemson. Bo Pelini is finally in a position to make a difference in recruiting, and their nemesis the last two years, pass defense, looks to get upgraded in 2009. It’s a veteran D that returns, with DT Ndamukon Suh and DEs Pierre Allen and Barry Turner putting the heat on opposing QBs. SS Larry Asante and LB Phillip Dillard (both seniors) will also add defensive strength. The offense, which finished 15th in the country last year, has a few holes to fill on the line, but that should pose no problems. Zac Lee will step in as the New QB replacing Joe Ganz, and should provide as good or better production. They’ll miss Nate Swift and Todd Peterson’s catches, so Junior WR Niles Paul will need to step up his game. All skill players are gifted with exceptional speed.
Nebraska has an early test at Virginia Tech the third week of the season. It won’t be a bad test, seeing that VT typically has a weak offense anyway. If they somehow get by the Hokies, they could be looking at a Big-12 North Championship, but to do so, they’ll need to get by both Kansas and Missouri on the road. The season finale at Colorado won’t be a walk in the park either.
Key games: @Virginia Tech (9/19), @Missouri (10/8), @Kansas (11/14).
23. Georgia Tech
By all pre-season analysis last year, GT was supposed to be in a messy transition period. The team went 9-4, including a season finale victory over Georgia. If that was a transition year, what will 2009 bring with 17 starters returning?
Offensively there will be more passing opportunities, even though they’ll still be running the triple-option. The thought is that the long ball could be there as teams come up to shut down the running game. Josh Nesbitt returns as QB and will need to cut down on costly mistakes over last year. Sophomore RB Roddy Jones could be an up and coming star. Junior RB Jonathan Dwyer will be the star of the offense though. He comes off a 200 carry, 1395-yard season and 12 TDs. The GT Defense lost three mega stars in their defensive line, Michael Johnson, Darryl Richard, and Vance Walker (all going NFL), so D-coach Dave Wommack will have his work cut out for him. The good news is that the defensive backfield, anchored by Junior S Morgan Burnett stands to be the strength, along with a great LB corps.
It’s pretty easy to see another 9-3 season given the schedule. They’ll get Virginia Tech and North Carolina at home, but will have challenging road games against Miami, Florida State and Virginia. They’ll finish at home against Georgia.
Key games: @Miami (9/17), North Carolina (9/26), @Florida State (10/10) Virginia Tech (10/17), Georgia (11/28).
24. Kansas
It may surprise you that Kansas went 8-5 last year and won their bowl game against Minnesota in a run away 42-21. But surviving last year with the brutal schedule they had, was a testimony to Mark Mangino’s coaching. But one thing that has to improve, is their showing up for Big-12 South opponents. Last year they were 0-3, losing to Oklahoma by 2 TDs, Texas Tech by 6 TDs, and Texas by 4 TDs. Ouch.
Senior QB Todd Reesing is back at the helm after throwing for nearly 4000 yards and 32 TDs. The same should be expected in 2009 especially throwing to Junior WR Dezmon Briscoe who will probably go pro after this year. Senior WR Kerry Meier returns also, who led the team in catches..97 for 1045. He also is destined for the NFL at 6-3/220. The O-line will need to learn to pass protect quickly, since the interior of the line is relatively inexperienced. But the main problem last year and this year will be the pass defense This doesn’t particularly bode well against their schedule. The D-Line will be bigger and faster which can cause lots of havoc. The new 4-2-5 defense will have good stuff up front, issues at LB, and possibilities in the secondary (led by Senior SS Darrell Stuckey)
The Jayhawks schedule looks to be just as tough, again having to play Texas, OU, and Texas Tech (teams that they lost to by a combined 143-59). Worse, they have to play at Texas Tech and at Texas.
Key games: @Colorado (10/17), Oklahoma (10/24), @Texas Tech (10/31), Nebraska (11/14), @Texas (11/21)
25. Oregon State
Coach Mike Riley has the knack for making prognosticators look stupid. In the last three years, the Beavers have been predicted to finish 7th, 5th and 6th in the Pac-10. The finished 3rd, 3rd and 2nd. You’d think these guys would learn.
The offense, not surprisingly, will again focus on Jacquizz and James Rodgers, the former gaining over 1200 yards on 259 carries and 11 TDs. WR James wil be the returning WR threat. Even better this year, the Beaves will have a duo of Quarterbacks from which to choose, each with exceptional talent. Lyle Moevao played well last season but sustained a shoulder injury which opened the door for Sean Canfield. The key to this year’s Oregon State’s offense will be how effective these two can be. Defensively, it proves to be a tougher year with the departure of eight starters including six all-stars. However, LB Keaton Kristick, who led the team in tackles is back along with DT Stephen Paea, who won All-Pac-10 honors last year. There will be enough talent to fill the holes, and coach Mark Banker has coordinated a Phoenix-rising before.
The Beavers won’t get an early visit from USC this year, so the chance of surprise could be lessened. Both Cal and USC are road dates along with the finale at Oregon.
Key games: Arizona (9/26), @USC (10/24), @Cal (11/7), @Oregon (12/3)
ON THE BUBBLE
Other teams that we’re keeping on the radar: Pitt, Michigan State, Arizona, Illinois, and NC State.
