Here are your week 4 round up and predictions!
#1 Florida (3-0) at Kentucky (2-0)
The Gators have been hit with the flu-bug this week causing key people to miss practices. Urban Meyer is downplaying it but it’s a real issue among teams right now. Last year Florida trounced the Wildcats 63-5, but this is a better Kentucky team this year. It’s hard to think that this will be the rout it was last year, and in fact, at home, Kentucky will want to show something extra. However, it shouldn’t be close, unless all the Gators have the flu on game day. Gators by 21.
#2 Texas (3-0) hosts UTEP (1-2)
Colt McCoy’s subpar performance last week against Texas Tech, might partly have been explained by the fact that he had the flu. Fully recovered now, a more focused Longhorn team will set its sites on dominating another non-conference opponent. UTEP got its first win of the season last Saturday, scoring the first 31 points in a 38-12 rout of New Mexico State. Donald Buckram rushed for 113 yards and two touchdowns, and Vernon Frazier also ran for two scores as the Miners compiled 14 more points than they had in their first two games combined. But they’ll need pretty much of a miracle to make any difference this Saturday. Longhorns by 36.
#3 Alabama (3-0) hosts Arkansas (1-1)
Bama comes off of a gimme win against North Texas, while the Razorbacks come off of a well-fought loss against Georgia. Arkansas allowed GA QB Joe Cox to throw for 375 yards, so firming up a pass defense should be at the top of their list. Conversely, Arkansas passed for over 400 against a pretty decent Georgia defense, so the Tide will have their hands full. However, we think that Bama offers too broad of an offensive punch, much more than Georgia, to make this too close. However, the Razorbacks have been known to put it all together for a top 10 game, so if they jump up and beat Bama, don’t say we didn’t warn you. Bama by 17.
#4 Penn State (3-0) hosts Iowa (3-0)
This will be the first important Big-10 showdown of the young 2009 season. PSU has played creampuffs, but showed an excellent defense as well as a balance offense. There has been a tendency to let up off the gas as the game has gone on however. A loss to the Hawkeyes spoiled Penn State’s otherwise perfect regular season in 2008, so motivation shouldn’t be a factor. On the other hand, Iowa hasn’t lost since it beat PSU last year, and as usual, they’ll do it with defense. Bad statistic here: The Nittany Lions have lost six of their last seven games against the Hawkeyes. We’re putting this one on Upset Alert, but we’ll lean to the Happy Valley boys this time. Penn State by 8.
#5 Mississippi (3-0) At South Carolina (2-1)
A key SEC matchup here, and the Rebels need to find a way to gel quickly. In their first three outings they’ve looked shaky and confused at times, especially in the passing game where Jevan Sneed has thrown for 5 TDs but 2 Interceptions. They will be trying to win their first SEC opener since 2003. The Gamecocks, however, have shown good solid defense, but and inconsistent, error-prone offense. This one might be closer than it should be. Mississippi by 4.
#6 California (3-0) At Oregon (2-1)
Cal has certainly proven itself worthy of its ranking early in the 2009 campaign boasting a brutal running attack led by Jahvid Best and a more than adequate passing game led by Kevin Riley who is sporting a QB rating of 117.5. Oregon has improved two straight since their opening night loss to Boise State. It’s hard to think that the Ducks will find enough defense to hold either attack in check, so we’ll tilt this one significantly in favor of the Golden Bears. Cal by 10.
#7 LSU (3-0) At Mississippi State (2-1)
On the surface this looks to be walk in the park for the Tigers, but not so fast. LSU is still struggling offensively as QB Jordan Jefferson seeks to raise his game. One thing he has done is increased his accuracy (now in the mid to high 60s) and in 74 attempts he’s thrown only 1 pick and 5 TDs. So they are going in the right direction. The defense has given up only 12 points in the last two games. Miss State has other hurdles. Coach Dan Mullen, who was the offensive coordinator for the Gators’ last two national title teams, has Mississippi State off to a strong start after going 4-8 last year and finishing at the bottom of the SEC West with a 2-6 mark. The Bulldogs won again last Saturday, surprising the Commodores 15-3 on the road as they allowed 157 yards — 33 on the ground. Look for this to be tight early then LSU pulling away late in a relatively low scoring affair. LSU by 13.
#8 Boise State (3-0) at Bowling Green (1-2)
We’ve sung accolades for the Broncos in the past touting their remarkable success in the WAC. But that’s just it…it’s the WAC. They don’t do themselves any favors this week going up against a MAC-based Bowling Green. Boise State running back D.J. Harper likely will miss the rest of the season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee. He is one of two tailbacks who share carries. However, this probably will make little difference. Bowling Green is probably a play or two away from a 3-0 start. But notching that second win and the fifth upset of a nationally-ranked team ever in the school’s history won’t be easy against a Boise State team that averaging 39.3 points per game and has won its games by an average of 25.3 points. Broncos by 17.
#9 Oklahoma (2-1) is Idle.
#10 Miami (2-0) At #11 Virginia Tech (2-1)
The marquee matchup of the weekend takes place in Blacksburg where both teams head into the game ranked for the first time since 2005. Miami is averaging 35.5 points and leads the ACC with 465.0 yards of total offense per game. The Canes are looking to win three consecutive games against Top 25 opponents for the first time since 2001. VTech has shown its schizophrenic offensive play under QB Tyrod Taylor, so its hard to judge exactly what’s going to happen with them on any given Saturday. The key here will be the continuation of the wide receiver play for Miami. The game could swing on a special teams play, but we think that the speed and versatility of Miami wins out. Hurricanes by 6.
#11 Virginia Tech (2-1) hosts #10 Miami (2-0) – see above.
#12 USC (2-1) hosts Washington State (1-2)
USC aims to rebound after falling in its Pac-10 opener against Washington when it hosts Washington State. They fell last year to Oregon State in Corvallis, but still managed to put together an impressive season and a Rose Bowl berth. The Trojans will be trying to avoid losing consecutive games for the first time since dropping four straight in 2001. Washington State is 8-56-4 in the series, including 4-37-2 in Los Angeles. No matter who the QB starter for USC will be, this one is a lock for USC. The line is USC by 45, but we think that might be overzealous. USC by 27.
#13 Ohio State (2-1) hosts Illinois (1-1)
QB Terrell Pryor came to life last week against Toledo throwing for 262 yards and pacing a 522 total yard day for the Buckeyes. The OSU defense is also playing exceptionally well. The Buckeyes have outscored their opponents 151-40 in winning four straight conference openers, and have won four of the past five overall against Illinois. Starting Illinois LB Montez Wilson is out for the season with a herniated disk in his neck. Not much of a contest here. Buckeyes by 18.
#14 Cincinnati (3-0) hosts Fresno State (1-2)
Say what you want about Fresno State, but they play a tough schedule. This will be the Bulldogs third top 25 team in a row and on the road to boot this week. Cincy has done nothing but just go out an annihilate their opponents by a combined score of 145-36 in three games. QB Tony Pike threw for over 330 yards in his last game alone. This one could turn into a shootout with both teams ranked in the top 10 in total offense. The Bulldogs are led by the nation’s leading rusher, Ryan Mathew, but have never beaten a top 15 opponent. Chances are, that continues Saturday. Bearcats by 17.
#15 TCU (2-0) at Clemson (2-1)
If you have access to this game on TV Saturday, tune in, it should be a heck of a contest. TCU looks to go 2-0 against the ACC when the Horned Frogs take a trip to Clemson. TCU already won easily at Virginia two weeks ago. After falling to Georgia Tech in its ACC opener, the Tigers bounced back with a win over Boston College. These teams haven’t met since Clemson won 3-0 in Death Valley in 1965, the Tigers’ second victory in three all-time matchups. TCU will most likely rely on its running attack, since Clemson allowed over 300 yards rushing against GT. Statistically, it’s all in TCU’s favor, but don’t count on that. We like the upset here. Clemson by 3.
#16 Oklahoma State (2-1) hosts Grambling State (2-1)
This is the first meeting of these two teams, as the Cowboys play host to FCS Grambling State. We’re not really sure how to make this sound competitive, but to say that Grambling State has won its last two games after a narrow defeat in its season opener. The Tigers took a 20-3 lead into halftime of their 27-17 victory over Jackson State last Saturday, OKST would nearly have to collapse to make this one even close. Cowboys by 40.
#17 Florida State (2-1) hosts South Florida (3-0)
South Florida isn’t the team it was a couple of years ago, but they still can make some noise. They’ll be on the road at Florida State but it’ll feel like a home game for Bulls QB B.J. Daniels, who starts his first game for the injured Matt Grothe, as he is from Tallahassee. The Seminoles are coming off their best game of the season, thrashing then-No. 7 BYU 54-28. The Seminoles are a bit schizophrenic this year, but if QB Christian Ponder gets in a groove, this could get ugly, but in the past this has been competitive. Florida State by 17.
#18 Georgia (2-1) hosts Arizona State (2-0)
Another cross-conference battle that could prove interesting. After scoring just 10 points in its opener, Georgia has rebounded nicely with 41- and 52-point performances in two SEC games. The Dawgs take a break from the SEC, but won’t get a breather this week when they host Arizona State. The Sun Devils rank No. 1 in the nation in total defense. ASU QB Danny Sullivan boasts a QB rating of 120.79, and that could play havoc with the Georgia pass defense. Look for this one to be close, but then the Dawgs pull away. Georgia by 13.
#19 Brigham Young (2-1) hosts Colorado State (3-0)
The Cougars were shocked last week when visited by Florida State and got ambushed by speed and a hot QB. This week the Cougars will have to rebound against Mountain West foe Colorado State, which is off to its best start in 15 years. BYU, which has won 12 consecutive conference games at LaVell Edwards Stadium, has won five straight over the Rams. The Rams are susceptible to the run, allowing 169 yards in last Saturday’s 35-20 win over Nevada. Although Colorado State had trouble stopping the run, it forced five turnovers, setting up 28 points to help the Rams open a season with three straight wins for the first time since starting 7-0 in 1994. Still, we look for BYU to come back strong this week. Cougars by 20.
#20 North Carolina (3-0) at Georgia Tech (2-1)
The Yellow Jackets fell out of the Top 25 last week with their poor showing against Miami, so they’ll be looking for redemption against a North Carolina team that is looking for offensive consistency. Georgia Tech’s triple-option spread offense ranks 16th in the country in rushing while the Tar Heels’ run defense checks in at No. 7. Something will give at Bobby Dodd Stadium, where the Tar Heels have lost five straight. The Yellow Jackets have won nine of the past 11 meetings with the Tar Heels. We like the upset here. Ga Tech by 3.
#21 Kansas (3-0) hosts Southern Miss (3-0)
Quietly, the Jayhawks keep winning, despite a very suspect pass defense. QB Todd Reesing is consistently throwing well guiding a high power offense, which it needs to make up for its defense. The Jayhawks are looking for their 20th consecutive nonconference home victory, but they’ll face a Golden Eagles team riding the nation’s second-longest winning streak. Kansas is third in total yards on offense, but the Golden Eagles are sixth in run defense. Perhaps more troubling for Kansas Golden Eagles sophomore quarterback Austin Davis has not thrown an interception in his last 128 passes. This actually has some upset potential, but we’re thinking that Kansas might have enough offense to run away. Jayhawks by 14.
#22 Michigan (3-0) hosts Indiana (3-0)
The Wolverines will be looking for more poise and consistency from freshman QB Tate Forcier this week as they host the Hoosiers. Michigan is 50-9 all-time against the Hoosiers and 34-7 at Ann Arbor. Indiana finished last in the Big Ten in 2008 with one win in conference play. The Hoosiers averaged 14.5 points against Big Ten opponents while giving up a league-high 41.0 points. They haven’t beaten a ranked team on the road in 6 years. This might be too much to overcome. Michigan by 22.
#23 Nebraska (2-1) hosts Louisiana-Lafayette (2-1)
Nebraska’s game against Louisiana-Lafayette will mark Memorial Stadium’s NCAA-record 300th consecutive sellout. The next longest streak is Notre Dame’s 207. Nebraska faces its third Sun Belt Conference opponent of the season, both of which were obliterated. Nebraska had all but beat Virginia Tech until a late defensive lapse on one play allowed Tech to win the game. The Cornhuskers will have much to prove and would love to send the home crowd into a frenzy. They probably will. Cornhuskers by 30.
#24 Houston (2-0) hosts Texas Tech (2-1)
The scoreboard operator could be working overtime when Houston hosts Texas Tech. The Cougars are No. 1 in the nation in scoring, and the Red Raiders are 19th. Both teams have budding stars at QB. Tech’s Taylor Potts is No. 1 in passing yards per game and Houston’s Case Keenum is No. 3. Houston defeated a similar style team in then #5 Oklahoma State with good pass defense. This is likely to be a close game, with both teams in the mid thirties, so in such games, Tech is 12-10 while Houston is a paltry 6-13. We’re going to lean on the upset here, but either team could blow this wide open. Red Raiders by 2.
#25 Washington (2-1) at Stanford (2-1)
Washington is off it’s biggest upset in years taking down a crippled USC team last week, which is significant seeing that last year the Huskies didn’t win a single game. QB Jake Locker sports rating of 138.69, five TDs and only 1 interception. The Cardinal won last year in Seattle, but QB Andrew Luck is overachieving with a rating of 153.44 and passing accuracy in the mid 70s. This one is hard to call, as its hard to know whether Washington is real or not. The line has Stanford by 7, but we’re tempted to buck that, giving coach Sarkesian the benefit of the doubt. Huskies by 4.
