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Archive for May, 2007

Came across these on the net – these are priceless!!!

Lesson 1:

A man is getting into the shower just as his wife is finishing up her shower when the doorbell rings. The wife quickly wraps herself in a towel and runs downstairs. When she opens the door, there stands Bob, the next door neighbor. Before she says a word, Bob says, “I’ll give you $800 to drop that towel.” After thinking for a moment, the woman drops her towel and stands naked in front of Bob.

After a few seconds, Bob hands her $800 dollars and leaves. The woman wraps back up in the towel and goes back upstairs. When she gets to the bathroom, her husband asks,…

“Who was that?” “It was Bob the next door neighbor,” she replies. “Great!” the husband says, “Did he say anything about the $800 he owes me?”

Moral of the story:
If you share critical information pertaining to credit and risk with your shareholders in time, you may be in a position to prevent avoidable. exposure.

Lesson 2

A sales rep, an administration clerk, and the manager are walking to lunch when they find an antique oil lamp. They rub it and a Genie comes out. The Genie says, “I’ll give each of you just one wish” “Me first! Me first!” says the admin. clerk. “I want to be in the Bahamas, driving a speedboat, without a care in the world.” Poof! She’s gone. “Me next! Me next!” says the sales rep. “I want to be in Hawaii,relaxing on the beach with my personal masseuse, an endless supply of Pina Coladas and the love of my life.” Poof! He’s gone. “OK, you’re up,” the Genie says to the manager. The manager says, “I want those two back in the office after lunch.”

Moral of the story:
Always let your boss have the first say.

Lesson 3

A priest offered a lift to a Nun. She got in and crossed her legs, forcing her gown to reveal a leg. The priest nearly had an accident. After controlling the car, he stealthily slid his hand up her leg. The nun said,”Father, remember Psalm 129?” The priest removed his hand. But,changing gears, he let his hand slide up her leg again. The nun once again said, “Father, remember Psalm 129?” The priest apologized “Sorry sister but the flesh is weak.” Arriving at the convent, the nun went on her way. On his arrival at the church, the priest rushed to look up Psalm 129. It said, “Go forth and seek, further up, you will find glory.”

Moral of the story:
If you are not well informed in your job, you might miss a great opportunity.

Lesson 4

A crow was sitting on a tree, doing nothing all day. A rabbit asked him,”Can I also sit like you and do nothing all day long?” The crow answered: “Sure, why not.” So, the rabbit sat on the ground below the crow, and rested.

A fox jumped on the rabbit and ate it.

Moral of the story:
To be sitting and doing nothing, you must be sitting very high up.

Lesson 5:

A turkey was chatting with a bull “I would love to be able to get to the top of that tree,” sighed the turkey, but I haven’t got the energy.” “Well, why don’t you nibble on my droppings?” replied the bull. “They’re packed with nutrients.” The turkey pecked at a lump of dung and found that it gave him enough strength to reach the lowest branch of the tree. The next day, after eating some more dung, he reached the second branch. Finally after a fourth night, there he was proudly perched at the top of the tree. Soon he was spotted by a farmer, who shot the turkey out of the tree.

Moral of the story:
Bullshit might get you to the top, but it wont keep you there.

Lesson 6

A little bird was flying south for the winter. It was so cold the bird froze and fell to the ground into a large field. While he was lying there, a cow came by and dropped some dung on him. As the frozen bird lay there in the pile of cow dung, he began to realize how warm he was. The dung was actually thawing him out! He lay there all warm and happy, and soon began to sing for joy. A passing cat heard the bird singing and came to investigate. Following the sound, the cat discovered the bird under the pile of cow dung, and promptly dug him out and ate him.

Moral of the story:
1. Not everyone who shits on you is your enemy
2. Not everyone who gets you out of shit is your friend
3. And when you’re in deep shit, it’s best to keep your mouth shut!

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I never quite figured out why the sexual urge of men and women differ so much. And I never have figured out the whole Venus and Mars thing. I have never figured out why men think with their head and women with their heart.

FOR EXAMPLE:

One evening last week, my girlfriend and I were getting into bed. Well, the passion starts to heat up, and she eventually says “I don’t feel like it, I just want you to hold me.”

I said “WHAT??!! What was that?!”

So she says the words that every boyfriend on the planet dreads to hear…


“You’re just not in touch with my emotional needs as a woman enough for me to satisfy your physical needs as a man.”

She responded to my puzzled look by saying, “Can’t you just love me for who I am and not what I do for you in the bedroom?”

Realizing that nothing was going to happen that night, I went to sleep.

The very next day I opted to take the day off of work to spend time with her. We went out to a nice lunch and then went shopping at a big, big unnamed department store. I walked around with her while she tried on several different very expensive outfits. She couldn’t decide which one to take so I told her we’d just buy them all. She wanted new shoes to compliment her new clothes, so I said lets get a pair for each outfit. We went onto the jewelry department where she picked out a pair of diamondearrings. Let me tell you…she was so excited. She must have thought I was one wave short of a shipwreck. I started to think she was testing me because she asked for a tennis bracelet when she doesn’t even know how to play tennis. I think I threw her for a loop when I said, “That’s fine, honey.”

She was almost nearing sexual satisfaction from all of the excitement. Smiling with excited anticipation she finally said, “I think this is all dear, let’s go to the cashier.”

I could hardly contain myself when I blurted out, “No honey, I don’t feel like it.”

Her face just went completely blank as her jaw dropped with a baffled “WHAT?”

I then said “honey! I just want you to HOLD this stuff for a while. You’re just not in touch with my financial needs as a man enough for me to satisfy your shopping needs as a woman.” And just when she had this look like she was going to kill me, I added, “Why can’t you just love me for who I am and not for the things I buy you?”

Apparently I’m not having sex tonight either.

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Ahh it was a good day! As noted, Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin were the class of the race. And I knew that it would be Curlin and Street Sense down the stretch.

I ended up placing only three wagers in today’s Preakness. As indicated before, I picked a 4-7-8 trifecta box, a 7-8 exacta box and a 4-8 exacta box for a total of $24. I was a bit scared away from doing a $48 4-7-8-wheel for 48 which in hindsight I should have done!

In any case I cashed the 4-8 exacta but as I predicted, it only paid $23. But the 4-7-8 trifecta made the day worthwhile paying $50. So I doubled up my money, plus a little.

Cant complain!

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Joe gets up at 6 a.m. and fills his coffeepot with water to prepare his morning coffee. The water is clean and good because some tree-hugging liberal fought for minimum water-quality standards. With his first swallow of water, he takes his daily medication. His medications are safe to take because some stupid commie liberal fought to ensure their safety and that they work as advertised.

All but $10 of his medications are paid for by his employer’s medical plan because some liberal union workers fought their employers for paid medical insurance – now Joe gets it too.

He prepares his morning breakfast, bacon and eggs. Joe’s bacon is safe to eat because some girly- man liberal fought for laws to regulate the meat packing industry.

In the morning shower, Joe reaches for his shampoo. His bottle is properly labeled with each ingredient and its amount in the total contents because some crybaby liberal fought for his right to know what he was putting on his body and how much it contained.

Joe dresses, walks outside and takes a deep breath. The air he breathes is clean because some environmentalist wacko liberal fought for the laws to stop industries from polluting our air.

He walks on the government-provided sidewalk to the subway station for his government-subsidized ride to work. It saves him considerable money in parking and transportation costs because some fancy-pants liberal fought for affordable public transportation, which gives everyone the opportunity to be a contributor.

Joe begins his work day. He has a good job with excellent pay, medical benefits, retirement, paid holidays and vacation because some lazy liberal union members fought and died for these working standards. Joe’s employer pays these standards because Joe’s employer doesn’t want his employees to call the union.

If Joe is hurt on the job or becomes unemployed, he’ll get a worker compensation or an unemployment check because some stupid liberal didn’t think he should lose his home because of his temporary misfortune.

It is noontime and Joe needs to make a bank deposit so he can pay some bills. Joe’s deposit is federally insured by the FSLIC because some godless liberal wanted to protect Joe’s money from unscrupulous bankers who ruined the banking system before the Great Depression.

Joe has to pay his Fannie Mae-underwritten mortgage and his below-market federal student loan because some elitist liberal decided that Joe and the country would be better off if he was educated and earned more money over his lifetime. Joe also forgets that his in addition to his federally subsidized student loans, he attended a state-funded university.

Joe is home from work. He plans to visit his father this evening at his farm home in the country. He gets in his car for the drive. His car is among the safest in the world because some America-hating liberal fought for car safety standards to go along with the tax- payer funded roads.

He arrives at his boyhood home. His was the third generation to live in the house financed by Farmers’ Home Administration because bankers didn’t want to make rural loans.

The house didn’t have electricity until some big- government liberal stuck his nose where it didn’t belong and demanded rural electrification.

He is happy to see his father, who is now retired. His father lives on Social Security and a union pension because some wine-drinking, cheese-eating liberals made sure Dad could take care of himself so Joe wouldn’t have to.

Joe gets back in his car for the ride home, and turns on a radio talk show. The radio host keeps saying that liberals are bad and conservatives are good. He doesn’t mention that the beloved Republicans have fought against every protection and benefit Joe enjoys throughout his day. Joe agrees: “We don’t need those big-government liberals ruining our lives! After all, I’m a self-made man who believes everyone should take care of himself, just like I have.”-

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Well, ok so we kinda did ok at the Kentucky Derby, but could have done a bit better. But then when you have the 20 best 3-year olds running in one race, its a bit hard to put all that together and choose 3 horses. The Preakness wont be quite as hard, but there are opportunities for surprised (though not likely).

The Preakness is run at Pimlico Race track two weeks after the Kentucky Derby. This year its the 12th race on the card, and has a field of nine horses, 4 of which were in the Derby. The other 5 chose to skip the Derby for one reason or another. The Preakness is 1/16th of a mile (1/2 furlong or 110 yards) shorter than the Derby, which really means nothing come to think of it overall.

The top three Kentucky Derby horses are all back: Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin. Not surpirsingly they are the pre-race favorites. There’s little chance that anyone else can compete with these three if they run up to their potential. However, in any given race, things just happen to give other horses an edge. Let’s review each horse, and see what the past performances tell us.

Remember some of the coding:

G1 = grade 1 race (races with good competition and high money)
G2 = grade 2 race (lower money, but usually very good competition)
G3 = grade 3 race (lower money and decent competition)

Beyer = An objective measurement of speed of the horse considering the track and times. In general a higher Beyer is best. Beyer’s greater than 100 are exceptional. These are usually followed by the competition grade (like 92-08). The larger the differential the more competitive the race. At these levels, you need to consistently be running in the mid 90’s or above to be competitive.

1 – MINT SLEWLEP (Robert Balles/A. Garcia) Track odds: 30-1
Right out of the block this looks dicey. His longest race today was 1-1/16 in March at a G3 where he placed 5th, running a 75 Beyer against a mediocre field (80-17). His best Beyer was an 85 (86-27) which just seems to me to make him WAY out of class here. The 30-1 seems a bit right, and might go up. There’s a decent chance this horse finishes dead last.

#2 – XCHANGER (Mark Shuman/R. Dominguez) Track odds: 15-1
This horse is coming off an impressive win at the Federico Tesio Stakes (1-1/8), winning by almost 5, and sporting a Beyer of 95 (92-12). However, outside that performance, there’s been little to get excited about. He’s struggled in most graded races pulling a couple of 3rds in G3s and a 6th at the Champagne G1, posting Beyers mostly in the mid 80’s or below. In his last outing however, he leaped out and won wire to wire running a 1:49-4 which was better than Street Sense did in losing the Blue Grass by a nose. Dominguez returns to ride this time and if it rains, this horse does VERY well.

#3 – CIRCULAR QUAY (Todd Pletcher/J. Velazquez) Track Odds: 8-1

At 8-1 this looks like a possible play. This horse was highly touted in the Derby, but couldn’t handle the big field and finished 6th. A better post position plays much better to his advantage. He’s definitely a stalker, and prefers to lay way back and make a big run, which will probably put him in the company of the favorites. His personal best 102 Beyer came in his win at the Louisiana Derby against a 98-07 field, so the horse can run with the best of them.

#4 – CURLIN (Steve Asmussen/R. Albarado) Track Odds: 7-2

After destroying the fields in his previous races, Curlin had to settle for 3rd in the Derby, getting caught too far outside to finish an impressive run from 6th to 3rd. Still he was 8 lengths from the winner (Street Sense), and 5 lengths from the place horse, Hard Spun. A shorter race (albeit only 1/16th) might favor him. The middle position is very good also. Its hard to imagine this horse not in the money here since he hasn’t had a Beyer less than 97. The 7-2 should hold close.

#5 – KING OF THE ROXY (Todd Pletcher/G. Gomez) Track Odds: 12-1

Definitely in play for an exotic at 12-1, Roxy is a decent wild card here. He skipped the Derby to prepare for the Preakness. There is some concern over the consistency of his races, as he’s run Beyers ranging from 40 (3 outings ago at the BC Juvenile) to 103 in winning the G2 Hutcheson. He came in 2nd only a ½ back of Tiago at the Santa Anita running the 1-1/8th in 1:49-2., so he has good speed. When he’s been in the money, he’s gone out early, preferring to hover around 4th or 3rd and charging to finish although at the Hutcheson he seemed to stalk toward the back. He draws a middle post which could be good for him to push to that position again.

#6 – FLYING FIRST CLASS (D Wayne Lucas/M. Guidry) Track Odds: 20-1

Another inconsistent horse with Beyers ranging from 53 to 107 in 5 outings. He won his last outing at the Derby Trial, going out in the top 4 and moving to the lead midway and never looking back (92, 93-13). What’s troubling here is that he’s been in two races with Curlin, and been left in the dust finishing 6th at the Arkansas Derby (G2) and 8th at the Rebel (G3) running only an 82 and 73 respectively. The concern is what this horse can do when he runs with good competition. It doesnt look good, but a $2 bet on a D. Wayne Lucas horse isnt the worst thing in the world. If this horse is allowed to run out to the lead, he could pop into the money at the end.

#7 – HARD SPUN (Larry Jones/M. Pino) Track Odds: 5-2

The Derby runner up is likely to be close to a co-favorite by post time, so the 5-2 is accurate. Pino jumps on again to reprise his KD ride. This horse likes to jump out to the leading pack, and did so in the Derby almost leading wire to wire. His history supports this (except for the LanesEnd). With Beyers greater than 100 (101, 107) in the last two graded races, it could be a very close finish this time. If Street Sense gets hung up, this is the horse to beat.

#8 – STREET SENSE (Carl Nafzger/C. Borel) Track Odds: 7-5

Your Derby winner should have no problem with this turf or distance, but there will be less time to pull away. Street Sense blew by the field at the end of the Derby as if they were standing still, sporting a scary Beyer of 110 (Equibase had him at 113!). The thing that just scares you to death is that this horse loves to start at the back of the pack and run up at the end (he was next to last in the Derby at one time). There’s no doubting that he should be the favorite, and he HAS won back to back graded races before, but the real test here will be how he will break with Hard Spun next to him that likes to run to the lead. The Preakness doesn’t treat kindly to those that stalk, so something has to give.

#9 – C P WEST (Nick Zito/E. Prado) Track Odds: 20-1

This could be a very interesting exotic play and long shot. You have to love the trainer/jockey pairing here, and while this horse hasnt seemed to find the winners circle in graded races, he’s run up to 2nd a few times. But, its very hard to think there’s a chance here, with his Beyers not measuring up (highest was a 92). He’s inconsistent, and his only quality race was the BC Juvenile with horses here, and he finished 6th. He’d really have to run a superior race and show speed he never has to be in the race here (or it would need to be a SLOW race). Coming from the far outside wont help either.

So my analysis says we have maybe 4 considerations: Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin and Circular Quay. I will be watching the workouts and reading more, but my first hunch on wagering would be:

Exacta Box: 7-8 (Hard Spun, Street Sense)
Trifecta Box: 7-8-4 (Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin)
I will probably do a few exotics with Circular Quay and maybe Flying First Class.

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OK So I am sitting here about 4 hours to post time, and just returned from the track to place my wagers for this year’s Kentucky Derby.  This is a magnificent field of 20 horses, with around 15 of them with a real shot, under certain circumstances to end up with the roses.  However, the gamesman that I am, I have to go out on a limb and try to pick em. So here goes.

The track is already soggy from yesterday’s rains, and the sun probably isnt going to come out enough to dry things out to be a “fast” track. With the caliber of horses in this race, this wont effect the major running, except for one factor – the race will be slower. A slower race brings more outside horses into the race which makes those an interesting proposition.

Look for Cowtown Cat, Stormello, Sam P and maybe Teusflesberg to jump out quickly, especially Cowtown Cat being in the 6 spot and having good speed. Most of the major contenders will be content to stalk and drop into the midpack and make clearing moves. Street Sense, from the 7-hole, should pop out but settle in around 6-9 and close to the rail if possible. Closers might even drop further, especially those like Dominican coming from the 19 spot, Any Given Saturday from the 18,  and even Circular Quay at 16.  Im thinking the 1/4 goes at around 22 or 23 secs, and the 1/2 at around 46 but could be slower.  If its slower, beware of the outside speed horses.

At the top of the stretch, I think you’ll see a pack including Street Sense, Circular Quay, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy, Curlin and maybe Dominican. If Street Sense has access to the rail, look for him to dive toward it and go all out.  IF Curlin and Dominican are in it, and they are anything like they were in past races, look for them to sprint to the end with Street Sense. Circular Quay will break also.  I think what finally happens is that Street Sense pulls away with Circular Quay a length or two behind, and Curlin and Dominican sprinting to catch and pass.  Street Sense is gutsy enough to hold off Circular Quay, but Curlin catches and passes for the win.

1) Curlin

2) Street Sense

3) Circular Quay

4) Dominican

Of course, you all can either worship me as a horse racing wizard in 4 hours, or feel free to chastize me all you want.  No matter how you look at it, it will be a great race.

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A long time ago, I can remember being ideologically drawn to the Republican party. Certainly as a youth this was a bit counter-culture to most my age. Yet, I saw the appeal of things that I admired: Values based platform, respect for state’s rights and less big government, balanced budget, discerned spending, and a sense of nationalism.  Republicans seemed to always be the more compassionate party, while Democrats were always the kooks. These were the things that Ronald Regan stood for and I was proud to support him in both terms. There hasnt been a finer example of Presidential-ism since.

But things have changed – drastically.  I think it more common to become more conservative as one ages, not the other way around. However, with the mass ideological shift of the Republican part, it just seems that they are out of touch with mainstream America, and as such, ineffective.

I came across an interesting perspective that seemed to hit it on the head…I paraphrase it here for brevity.  Think of these as the new, 21st century beliefs you must adhere to if you are to be in the Republican Party today:

1.  You must believe that being a drug addict is a moral failing and a crime – unless you’re a millionaire right wing radio gasbag; then, it’s an “illness” and requires prayer for “recovery”. Right Rush?

2. You must believe that those born to privilege achieve success on their own, but that all of their customers are lazy and stupid. Sadly, I have to admit this has always been the case.

3.  You must believe that ethics are an inconvenience that only Democrats bother with, and that any way you raise money is okay, so long as you don’t get caught. Hence why in 6 years the Republican members of Congress have solidified against every ethics initiative brought before the bodies. And we dont need to talk about Rove, Libby, and other corrupt officials.

4. You must believe that folks who work for their money should be taxed at a high rate, but those who get their money for nothing should be exempt from taxation.  Sadly this has been the case for a while also. I dont understand why someone making $10,000,000 a year should pay less tax than a father of 2 trying to make ends meet and sending a kid to college, and not getting any tax break for it.

5. You must believe that being “morally upright” means hating gays and liberals, and anyone else who doesn’t hate gays and liberals.  When did it get to be national politics for your biases to become law and force them on everyone else, who also so happen to be citizens of this country.  Show me ANYWHERE in the U. S. Constitution that hints at this. If you dont like it morally, thats your business, work with your church to do whatever you wish – that is the proper vehicle for MORAL change, not the Federal government.

6. You must believe that, to rid the country of crime, you must rid the world of people not like you. You speak alot about terrorism, and yet the single thing that drives terrorists wild, is the idea that all citizens in this country can speak their mind, without fear of reprisal. Pluralism is the hallmark of democracy, yet Republicans feel otherwise. Shame on you.

7.  You must agree that racking up huge amounts of debt and handing it off to future generations is worth the few thousand extra in tax breaks given to your wealthy “investors.” Nuff said on that, review the last 6 years and see where the deficit and debt levels have gone!

8.  You must believe the US should pull out of the UN, at the same time you claim our highest national priority is to start a war to enforce UN resolutions. Something I never understood. In addition to starting a war on manufactured, deceptive information (and defrauding Congress). you ask the UN for permission to conduct an offensive, then ignore it, but wish to hold other countries to the resolutions. Is there ANY surprise that the US and Israel are the largest violators of UN resolutions in the history of the organization?

9. You must believe that government should stay out of people’s financial lives, but should socially engineer any behaviors deemed “unacceptable.” That the government should stay out of our checkbooks, but feel perfectly at home on our bedrooms and doctors offices.

10. You must believe that profitable pollution is perfectly ok, and that all science is bunk when it cuts into profits.  Now look where we are!

11. You must support prayer in schools, as long as no one prays to Allah or Buddha. Hyprocrites.

12. You must believe that rushing to Washington to vote to keep a dead woman’s tube in place is more important than seeing thousands of people drown in a hurricane.  Perhaps the single most embarassing, tragic and defiled abuse of governmental power in the history of the US.

13. You must believe that no Republican is crooked, as long as he says the right thing and writes you a big enough check.

14. You must believe that, while a woman cannot be trusted with decisions about her own body, huge multi-national corporations can be trusted to make decisions affecting all mankind with no regulation whatsoever. Irresponsible pharmaceutical companies that sell a drug for cents in Norway, sell it for hundreds in the US, just because the insurance companies can pay.

15. You must believe that Jesus loves you, but shares your hatred and distrust of the poor, homosexuals, and the Clintons.  If you dont believe this, please go listen to the ultra right wing, fundamentalist rhetoric in the past, and in this current election. Oh by the way, yes they are funded by donations that could be saving people all over the world, helping mothers make good moral decisions, and rendering aid to the underprivileged. But, lobbiests give more publicity.

16. You must believe that the best way to show appreciation to the troops is to charge them to fly home for leave, serve plastic turkey and cut their VA benefits.  Yes its thre Republicans that did this, all the while talking about “honoring their service”. Look it up if you dont believe it.

17. You must think that keeping sex education and birth control out of schools is the wisest course, because without them, teenagers will never have sex.  Yeah that will work. How about those churches using that money to build activity centers for kids to help teach them? Oh, no that wont work.

18.  You must think that the best way to fight terrorism is to alienate our allies and piss off the rest of the world at the same time we demand their cooperation and money. Do we really have any friends left?  Didnt the UK just announce the reduction of troops? Hmm.

19. You must believe that single-payer health care, in which everyone pays for and receives health insurance, would be a disaster compared to the current system, in which 40 million people are forbidden from paying into the system, but still receive emergency health care. You must also believe that insurance companies only care about giving you the best darn health care there is, damn the profit. You must also believe that providing health care to Iraqis is good policy, while providing it to Americans is a “Socialist plot.”

20.  You must agree that the link between tobacco and cancer is “dubious,” that claims of global warming are “junk science” and that creationism has a sound scientific basis that should be part of all school curricula.

21. You must agree that Saddam Hussein was a good guy when Reagan was sending him arms, a bad guy when he invaded Kuwait, a good guy again when Cheney did business with him at Halliburton, and then a bad guy again when Bush decided that a war in Iraq would be a very lucrative deal for his “investors.”

22.  You must believe that the Bill of Rights is absolute in the case of the Second Amendment, but negotiable with regard to the rest of the document.  Oh I’m sorry, if you are a Republican you have no idea what the Bill of Rights is.  Google to find out.

23. You must agree that the adulterous affairs of Democrats require public embarrassment and impeachment, while those of Republicans are a private matter, and excusable because, well, “boys will be boys” (or girls). I repeat… Hypocrites.

24. You must ascribe to the notion that the Clintons’ business deals were major breaches of the public trust, while the fact that Dick Cheney is still being paid by Halliburton, which is now getting billions of your tax dollars, is no big deal.

25. You must believe that everything that Democrats do should be public knowledge, but that the public has no right to know anything that Republicans do.

26. You must always deride a Democrat’s changes of mind and philosophy as a “flip-flop,” while referring to those of fellow Republicans as “growth.”

27. You must openly support “state rights,” except when John Ashcroft wants to force local libraries to turn over their records or Tom DeLay wants to impose new districts because he doesn’t like election results.

28. You must agree that income tax cuts for the rich are good for the economy, while payroll tax cuts for the working class are bad. Furthermore, you must believe that making sure that the rich have a few extra dollars in their pockets is good for the economy, while raising the minimum wage is detrimental.

And the list of rules grows everyday that Bush and Cheney run the government.

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Well, this is one of those posts that makes you either look like a genius or like a chump. Predicting horse races, especially the Derby, is very suicidal to an extent. Especially when you have 20 horses running, and so many are evenly matched.

One thing to watch in this race, unlike other Derbies…Trainer Todd Pletcher has 5 horses in this race (6-Cowtown Cat, 13-Sam P, 14-Scat Daddy, 16-Circular Quay, 18-Any Given Saturday), the most of anyone in a very long time. With a full 25% of the field basically under his guidance, he could manipulate the pace and the running of the race, to benefit one of his horses. Every trainer/owner/jockey runs their race, hoping that the horse will follow by the way. It isnt exactly ethical, but it certainly is something to think about.

So I’ll throw myself out on the limb, and offer my own analysis for each horse (no, I havent picked a winner yet, but I will in a subsequent post. In each entry, I show the post position in brackets, the horse name, followed by the trainer and jockey. Next, his lifetime stats (Races – wins – places -shows) and 2007 results. Lastly the established morning line set by Churchill Downs.

If you arent familiar with some terminology, here are just a few:

G1, G2, G3 = These are “graded” races – those at which the competition is high, and payoff is great. G1s are major races such as the triple crown races, Florida Derby, etc. G2’s are a step below, G3’s are a step below that.

Beyer = This is a relative rating based on speed of the horse in a particular race, the higher the better. You will usually see me refer to the Beyer with respect to another rating lik 92-07. This represents the general competition of the race (the closer the first # is to 100 and the closer the 2nd number is to zero, the more competitive the race. So a Beyer of 96 in a 98-02 race, might be better than a Beyer of 100 in a 85-17 race.

[1] Sedgefield (Darris Miller/J Leparoux) (8-2-3-0)(5-1-3-0) 50-1

A better turf horse. Probably not a bad exotic. Has an impressive bloodline that includes Smart Strike (same as Curlin), Northern Dancer (Triple Crown winner), and Hail to Reason. Hasn’t competed in G1s, only 1 G2 (2nd). Leparoux rides in KD taking over for Bejarano who will ride Dominican. Best Beyer was a 96 at Lanes End in a 91-07 race. No reason to think this horse will factor, especially since last outing was a G3 and the Beyer was 75 in a 71-15 race and finished 4th. Not a good ramp up.

 

[2] Curlin (Steve Asmussen/R Albarado) (3-3-0-0)(3-3-0-0) 7-2

Impressive win in the Arkansas Derby by 10 over Storm in May, with a blazing finish and a 103 Beyer in a 91-17. Hard to think that this horse, being a Maiden only 3 months ago, runs the longest race of his career, and wins, but stranger things have happened. Comes from a bloodline that includes Smart Strike and Northern Dancer. Odds likely to fall to 3-1 or better, with lots of publicity. He will favor an average pace race. If race starts fast, he cant win. He likes to stay in close at the pack lead, then finish strong. This horse hasn’t run a G1, is probably fast enough to win if he’s positioned at the top of the stretch, if he doesn’t run out of steam to a more experienced horse. The good: Son of Smart Strike won three straight by a total 28 ½ lengths. The bad: If he emerges as post time favorite, he’d become only the third since Spectacular Bid in ’79 to smell the roses. The ugly: He must overcome historic barriers like no unraced 2-year-old has scored in 115 years and the last to succeed off three career starts came 92 years ago.

 

[3] Zanjero (Steve Asmussen/S.Bridgmohan) (8-2-2-3)(3-0-0-3) 30-1

Impressive bloodline includes AP Indy, Seattle Slew, and Buckpasser. Has been in the money in both G1 and G2 races (3rd in the Blue Grass racing against Dominican and Street Sense) running a 93 Beyer in a 88-15 race in the BG, which has been his best. However, there’s little chance he’s fast enough to win in a fast finish race as this probably will be. New jockey after dumping Gomez, but Bridgmohan has history with this horse winning twice. Very much in play for an exotic.

 

[4] Storm In May (Kaplan Williams/J Leyva) (13-4-2-6) (5-1-1-2) 30-1

Has never been out of the money in any race, including 2 G3’s and 2 G2’s (note that he’s never run a G1). Was a very distant 2nd in the Arkansas Derby to Curlin. Beyers are not impressive, but mght favor a slower paced race up front like this Derby might be. However its hard to think that this horse will even be in the top 10. Bloodline includes Storm Cat, Secretariat, Northern Dancer, Buckpasser, and Bold Ruler.

 

[5] Imawildandcrazyguy (Kaplan Williams/M Guidry) (11-2-2-2) (3-0-1-0) 50-1

This race seems to be way over this colt’s head. He’s run 3 graded stakes including the Florida Derby, and only placed in the G3. Came in 6th in the Florida Derby against common opponents. Does have Northern Dancer, Hail to Reason and Buckpasser in the bloodline, tho. Beyers are significantly below whats needed here, posting a best 94 in a 87-18 OC race. Best graded stakes Beyer is 92 at the La Derby. Guidry is a new jockey for the first time on this horse.

 

[6] Cowtown Cat (Todd Pletcher/F Jara) (7-4-0-1)(4-3-0-1) 20-1

Not a bad consideration for an exotic. His Illinois Derby victory reminds me of War Emblem, who romped in ’02, last of three Derby winners saddled by Bob Baffert. One of five Pletcher trainees, the son of Distorted Humor goes for his third straight stakes victory and has been working well. The Illinois Derby win was with posting a 98 Beyer in an 88-15 race, but really was uncontested, as he led pole to pole. Has won back to back graded stakes and is training well. His pedigree includes Storm Cat, Secretariat, Northern Dancer, and Hail To Reason. My gut feeling is that this horse will be outclassed to win, but might creep up into the money if things fall right. This is a Pletcher horse, and it would be logical to think that he might sacrifice Cowtown Cat to run hard, early, to tire the field. With his speed he could pop to the lead early with Sam P, tiring out the middle packers, and setting up Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, or Any Given Saturday to win.

 

[7] Street Sense (Carl Mafzger/ C Borel) (7-3-2-2)(4-3-0-1) 4-1

Likely to be the co-favorite, or close to it. The son of Street Cry has looked great working at Churchill Downs where he ran away with last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, whipping four current Derby contenders. However, the average finish in the big race of more than four-dozen runners, including nearly half that triumphed, was well off the board. Five of his last 7 have been Graded races, and he’s been in the money in each (2 wins, a place and 2 shows). Those races also, have featured common competition. He blew away the field in the BC Juvenile, winning by 10 (Beyer 108) in a MUCH better field (98-07) than Curlin had in the Arkansas. He just got edged out in the Blue Grass by a nose to Dominican. His bloodline includes Northern Dancer, Hail to Reason, and Dancer’s Image. Should be a play in any trifecta, and a serious consideration for the victor.

 

[8] Hard Spun (Larry Jones/M Pino) (6-5-0-0) (3-2-0-0) 15-1

Only two graded stakes (no G1) for this 3-year-old, but finished 1st in both. In fact, all races except one have been wins. Last outing at G2 Lanes End posted a 101 Beyer (94-07) which qualiifes as a genuine threat here. Question only the distance as longest trip to date has been one 9-furlong race (last out), and before this all were 1 mi or less. Breeding favors distance however with Northern Dancer, Alydar and Hail to Reason providing the right genes. Should be a play in a tri, and other exotic. With a break, roses is the prize, and good chance to be in the money. The son of Danzig not only led in the stretch of all five wins by the way, but also increased the margins at the wire. However, he does come off a six-week layoff (remember Barbaro?)

 

[9] Liquidity (Doug O’Neill/D Flores) (7-1-2-1) (3-0-1-0) 30-1

A bevvy of graded stakes for this horse, but no better than 2nd in any. Finished 4th in the Santa Anita and a poor 6th when he died in the last furlong of the La Derby behind competitors in this race. Best Beyer is 102 in a G3 91-07 race, but other than that its pretty doubtful, as this horse has a history of getting up then faultering. Breeding notes Seattle Slew, Hail To Reason, and Northern Dancer.

 

[10] Teuflesberg (Jamie Sanders/S Elliot) (15-4-1-2) (4-1-0-2) 30-1

Most experienced horse in the race with 15 trips so could hurt him. Faultered badly in the BC Juvy G1 finishing 10th when he was bumped early in a crowded field. Led the Blue Grass but was outrun by Dominican, Street Sense, and Zanjero, all in this race. Beyer speed is adequte (best at 100, 92-20), but has fallen off last 2 outings (bounce ?). Edgar Prado was jockey, but abandoned here to go with Scat Daddy, but Elliot has won on this horse. Northern Dancer, Secretariat and Hail To Reason are in bloodline, but can see those genes overcoming a better field.

 

[11] Bwana Bull (Jerry Hellendorfer/J. Castellano) (9-4-2-1) (3-2-0-0) 50-1

A late entry and probably shouldn’t be in this race at all. Beyers are not near caliber status, with highest of 91 in a 84-15 race and finished 5th in the Santa Anita. Not particularly bred for this distance. Fact is here that this horse just isnt close to the main competition here and will finish far back.

 

[12] Nobiz Like Shobiz (Barclay Tagg/C Velasquez) (6-4-1-1) (3-2-0-1) 8-1

Has run in five straight graded stakes (G1, G2, G3, G2, G1) and was in the money in all, including 3 wins, winning the Wood Memorial in the last outing. Consistent high 90’s beyer in competitions that included many of the horses here. Definitely a contender, but will need to step up here. 8-1 will probably hold, if not retreat a bit, making this an interesting consideration on exotics. Seems ok at distance, and sports Northern Dancer, Secretariat, and Hail To Reason in bloodline. This son of Albert the Great, with a pedigree that screams stamina, has the winning profile mentioned above, four victories, including two in graded stakes at 1 1/8 miles this spring with blinkers added and last fall, plus three Derby preps. In addition, the colt is trained by Barclay Tagg, who saddled ’03 Derby winner Funny Cide.

 

[13] Sam P (Todd Pletcher/R Dominguez) (8-2-2-1) (3-0-1-1) 20-1

Finished 3rd in the Santa Anita behind Tiago (winner) and 2nd in the RB Lewis G2 behind Great Hunter. PPs seem to bear out that several horses in this race finish ahead of him consistently. Generally unimpressive Beyers (99 high in a 85-15 finishing 2nd), and seems inconsistent. This race has much too much class for him. Maybe will finish in top half. This is a Pletcher horse, so if there is a manipulation, look for Sam P to pop to the early lead to try to run a few others out. See my comments under 6-Cowtown Cat.

 

[14] Scat Daddy (Todd Pletcher/E Prado) (8-5-1-1) (3-0-1-1) 10-1

If odds hold, maybe the best play on the board. You have to love the trainer-jockey combo (34 .26 $2.09) as they won the last outing in the G1 Florida Derby. In a previous F2 he beat Stormello and Nobiz Like Shobiz. Beyers are on the rise (93,95,98) so I like the consistency. Doesn’t seem to have a bad race. With Northern Dancer and Secretariat in the line, this is maybe the best, reasonable long shot. Son of Joannesberg he is the only horse to post two graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles. Although taking a five-week break since winning the Florida Derby, he did capture the Grade 1 Champagne off a nearly six-week layoff last year. Edgar Prado seeks to repeat his winning ride on Barbaro for trainer Todd Pletcher. He stands to benefit from a Pletcher-shaped race, if Sam P or Cowtown Cat jump out early. I’m pretty sure this guy will be in the money.

 

[15] Tiago (John Shirreffs/M Smith) (4-2-0-1) (3-2-0-0) 15-1

Giacomo’s half brother with same owner/trainer. Relatively little experience here, out only four times, but shows nice progression and improvement. Beyers increased each time culminating in a 100 (89-15) win at the Santa Anita Derby, but over tier two competition. Only two graded stakes performances, and the other was a lousy 7th in a G2 being outclassed by competition in this race. There is an outside chance here.. Tiago won the SA when the race kinda fell apart, and he took over…this race could do the same. But expect he cant outduel better horses for the win. However, might be up in the finish pack.

 

[16] Circular Quay (Todd Pletcher/J Velasquez) (7-4-2-0) (2-1-0-0) 8-1

At first glance this seems to be a class horse here. Has already won more than a million in racing (only 7 races), and the record at CD is great (3-2-1-0). Won the Louisiana Derby posting a 102 Beyer in a 98-07 race! Was 2nd to Street Sense at the BC Juvy, and 2nd to Great Hunter in the Breeders Futurity. Seems to be one step behind, though, and if you remove the 102 at La Downs, you have less than needed Beyers to make a roses run. Also, he’s been off 8 weeks…ok Barbaro was off 5 but this aint Barbaro. Velsaquez up gives a big edge. Another Pletcher horse here, and could figure in the fray at the end, if a couple of other Pletcher horses run down and/or clog up the field.

 

[17] Stormello (William Currin/K Desormeaux) (9-3-1-2) (2-0-1-0) 30-1

One of the middle of the packers I think. Did not get close to the money at the BC Juvy as he faded badly and was outrun. Most competitive was a 2nd at the Fountain of Youth G2 behind Scat Daddy. However, this horse has been running close to this distance for a while now, so it will be a question of power toward the end, and I don’t like that I see a lot of “tired” in the notes. Maybe a thought for an exotic since he might be the best long-odds horse He is the best shot for jumping out ahead, as this horse wants to run fast. Desormeaux is seasoned and will attempt to stay off the pace, and if successful, could be a scintillating sight in the home stretch.

 

[18] Any Given Saturday (Todd Pletcher/G Gomez) (6-3-2-1) (2-0-1-0) 12-1

Well you have to like a horse that is in the money every time he’s out, but consistency could be an issue. He’s posted two 100+ Beyer trips, one of which was at the very competitive Tampa Derby (100-10), A 3rd at the Wood Memorial, shows that he’s game enough to bring it.Doesnt seem to mind a crowd either. The distance will NOT be a factor. So, if you are looking for another decent longshot, this might be it…he could win, especially considering he’s a Pletcher horse.

 

[19] Dominican (Darrin Miller/R Bejarano) (7-3-0-2) (2-2-0-0) 20-1

I don’t like the odds on this horse, or maybe I do. I think he could be vastly underestimated, so don’t be surprised if 20-1 wont hold. He won the Blue Grass, outdueling Street Sense posting a 93 Beyer. Unfortunately his history boasts only a G2 and a G3 before that. I like him in exotics and combos. This son of El Corredor must prove he can step up on the dirt after going 3-for-3 on synthetic surfaces. His workout at Churchill Downs on Sunday was fast, but a bit jerky, according to observers. He did race twice last year at Louisville, but previous experience on the main track hasn’t assured victory on the first Saturday in May.

 

[20] Great Hunter (Doug O’Neill/C Nakatani) (9-3-4-1) (2-1-0-0) 15-1

Has tuned great for the race, striding in 7 straight graded races. Was 5th in the Blue Grass, 3rd in the BC Juvy (way off the lead), and won the Breeder’s Futurity. In the recent G2 RBLewis, he posted a 101 beyer in a medirocre field. Throw that out tho and couple with a far outside post, and it wil cause you to maybe look elsewhere. He could recover from the horrible, fifth-place finish in the Blue Grass and his pedigree indicates he can run all day. But no horse that finished that far off the board in Derby preps has scored in a half-century.

 

I’m always interested in hearing from other handicappers! Good luck.

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The Husband Store

A brand new store has just opened in London that sells Husbands. When women go to choose a husband, they have to follow the instructions at the entrance:-


“You may visit this store ONLY ONCE! There are 6 floors and the value of the products increase as you ascend the flights. You may choose any item from a particular floor, or may choose to go up to the next floor, but you CANNOT go back down except to exit the building!”

So, a woman goes to the Husband Store to find a husband. On the 1st floor the sign on the door reads: Floor 1 – These men have jobs.

The 2nd floor sign reads: Floor 2 – These men Have Jobs and Love Kids.

The 3rd floor sign reads: Floor 3 – These men Have Jobs, Love Kid and are extremely good looking. “Wow,” she thinks, but feels compelled to keep going.

She goes to the 4th floor and the sign reads: Floor 4 -These men Have Jobs, Love Kids, are Drop-dead Good Looking and Help with Housework. “Oh, mercy me!” she exclaims, “I can hardly stand it!”

Still, she goes to the 5th floor and sign reads: Floor 5 – These men have Jobs, Love Kids, are Drop-dead Gorgeous, help with Housework and Have a Strong Romantic Streak.

She is so tempted to stay, but she goes to the 6th floor and the sign reads: Floor 6 – You are visitor 31,456,012 to this floor. There are no men on this floor. This floor exists solely as proof that women are impossible to please. Thank you for shopping at the Husband Store.

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Some Ponderables

Thanks to my Dad for passing these along:

How important does a person have to be before they are considered assassinated instead of just murdered?


Why do you have to “put your two cents in”.. but it’s only a “penny for your thoughts”? Where’s that extra penny going to?


Once you’re in heaven, do you get stuck wearing the clothes you were burie d in for eternity?


Why does a round pizza come in a square box?


What disease did cured ham actually have?


How is it that we put man on the moon before we figured out it would be a good idea to put wheels on luggage?


Why is it that people say they “slept like a baby” when babies wake up like every two hours?


If a deaf person has to go to court, is it still called a hearing?


Why are you IN a movie, but you’re ON TV?


Why do people pay to go up tall buildings and then put money in binoculars to look at things on the ground?


Why do doctors leave the room while you change? They’re going to see you naked anyway.


Why is “bra” singular and “panties” plural?


Why do toasters always have a setting that burns the toast to a horrible crisp, which no decent human being would eat?


If Jimmy cracks corn and no one cares, why is there a stupid song about him?


Can a hearse carrying a corpse drive in the carpool lane ?


If the professor on Gilligan’s Island can make a radio out of a coconut, why can’t he fix a hole in a boat?


Why does Goofy stand erect while Pluto remains on all fours? They’re both dogs!


If Wile E. Coyote had enough money to buy all that ACME crap, why didn’t he just buy dinner?


If corn oil is made from corn, and vegetable oil is made from vegetables, what is baby oil made from?


If electricity comes from electrons, does morality come from morons?


Do the Alphabet song and Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star have the same tune?


Why did you just try singing the two songs above?


Why do they call it an asteroid when it’s outside the hemisphere, but call it a hemorrhoid when it’s in your butt?


Did you ever notice that when you blow in a dog’s face, he gets mad at you, but when you take him for a car ride, he sticks his head out the window?

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