It’s Wednesday, and time to look at the upcoming weekend’s games for week ten. As the season moves into the month of November, key crucial games come into focus. Many of these tend to be late in the season, but some start as early as this week. All rankings listed below are based on the most recent BCS positions (not mine!).
#21 Wisconsin at #1 Ohio State.
The Badgers started the year with so much promise, and have just plain failed to really seize the day when it was absolutely necessary. Back to back road losses against Illinois and Penn State have really put UW in a terrible position having to play the games of their lives against Ohio State and Michigan back to back. Not an enviable position! And worse, they must go to the Shoe to play the Buckeyes , who happen to be playing the best ball of any team in collegiate football, and getting stronger every week. I think the Badgers could put up a fight, but they’ll need a really elevated play from a defense that has been spotty. OSU rolls again, by 17.
Florida State at #2 Boston College.
Simply stated, the Seminoles just dont have the firepower to overcome BC’s defense. However, BC showed against VT that they are vulnerable, and if FSU can put a solid game together, control the ball and put pressure on Ryan, it could be competitive – and look for the Easter Bunny to be hopping down the bunny trail too. BC by 21.
#3 LSU at #17 Alabama.
This is a very important game for the Tigers, and a big test for them on the road. LSU is at 7-1 and Alabama at 6-2 in the SEC West. A win by LSU puts them in the driver’s seat for the SEC Championship (barring collapses against La Tech, Ole Miss and Arkansas). Furthermore, and MORE importantly, LSU really needs to beat Alabama soundly, to change the minds of some of the pollsters and get the needed BCS bonus points to close ranks on Boston College to get to the National Championship. With the Northeast bias in the polls, that will be hard without really making a statement in Tuscaloosa by 28 or more. I honestly dont think they’ll win that big, as Alabama has a stubborn defense. I’m sure Les Miles wishes now he hadn’t gone for the 1st down in OT against Kentucky.
#4 Arizona State at #5 Oregon.
The game of the week. At stake? Most likely the Pac 10 Championship, a trip to the Rose Bowl and maybe more who knows. The Sun Devils have proved that they are no fluke. They have a potent offense with an aggressive defense to match. Oregon, with QB Dennis Dixxon is equally potent and I believe that the extra dimension that he brings to this game will make the ultimate difference. Playing at home doesn’t hurt the Ducks either. I like Oregon by 10.
Texas A&M at #6 Oklahoma
OU is probably the weakest top 10 team in the bunch and unfortunate for them, they’ll play absolutely no one to help them climb higher than where they are now. The remainder of their games are with non-ranked teams (with no hope of being ranked), so no matter what they do, they wont get a break unless someone above them loses. Thats at least going to happen this week cuz either #4 or #5 will lose. The Aggies are hopelessly lost with a coach that still plays 1970’s Big 10 footbal in a 21st century world. OU by 17 or more.
Nebraska at #8 Kansas
Poor Nebraska. Their season is shot as the program seeks to reinvent itself for next year. It’s even money whether Bill Callahan will finish the season or not, but the fact that the University brought back Tom Osbourne as a consultant bodes no good. Not helping things, starting QB Sam Keller is now out for the season, but to be honest, the offense hasnt really been the huge problem. Three-year backup Joe Ganz will start on Saturday against a Jayhawk team that specializes putting numbers up. This is not good news for a very poor Cornhusker defense thats averaging giving up 38 points per game in the 4 straight losses. I dont know why, but I look for a resurgence by Nebraska- they did well against Texas, and almost came back to win the game, so I think Kansas may win this, but maybe by less than 10.
#9 Missouri at Colorado
Here’s a very dangerous game for the Tigers, as all the forces are lining up against them. First, they come off an easy victory over Iowa State (doo dah). Second, they are on the road. Last, they go up against a strong, fast defense. When did this happen last?? Against Oklahoma and they lost. They had just come away from trouncing Nebraska 41-6, went on the road against a fast OU defense and got outscored 41-31. Let’s add one more thing – Missouri lost starting safety Cornelius Brown to an Achille’s tear. This is ripe for an upset.
#12 Michigan at Michigan State
Well well well. And were you one of those that wrote the Wolverines off after an 0-2 start? This is a really key emotional game for Michigan. It wont be easy either. Its a rivalry game to begin with, but add the fact that Michigan is just now trying to adjust without Mike Hart. But also consider that when most people were writing this team off, they have risen from the ashes and are 2 spots out of the top 10. If Ohio State maintains, Michigan could have an inside track to the Rose Bowl. That level of excellence needs to be on display in Lansing on Saturday. I like Michigan to rise to the challenge and win by 6.
Rutgers at #13 Connecticut
This is still a big game, but not as big as it would have been had the Scarlet Knights not been destroyed by West Virginia last week. UConn will have a very tough challenge against a potent running game and a strong, fast defense. However, they got that test against South Florida earlier and prevailed. This one is too close to call, but I might err on the side of the Huskies just because they are playing at home.
Thats all the significant games I really have to report on for this week. One other of mild note, Texas could slip yet again when they have to travel to Stillwater to play Oklahoma State. Watch this game closely, as if the Longhorns cant handle the OSU offense, it means they might have similar problems with Texas Tech the following week. Texas is still very precarious.