The CFB season rolls on into the far turn, where final positioning for the home stretch run begins. Several teams this week have a chance to either play havoc, or cement their future. Now, we admit these are few and far between, but we’ll run down the Kathman-Patton Top 25 and their games, and see what we think. Sorry that we posted both our rankings and predictions on the same day, but hey, things happen.5
#1 Texas (8-0) at #5 Texas Tech (8-0). Just about everyone is talking this game up this week, but we think its overhyped. The only thing bad for Texas going into this game, is that it’s not in Austin. Otherwise, all the signs and symbols point the Longhorns’ way. UT has taken the best teams on this year and comfortably handled each one. First there was Missouri, with Heisman candidate Chase Daniels. Disposed easily and soundly. Then, Oklahoma State… while the the score was 28-24, the game was never in doubt. Now comes Texas Tech, enjoying probably the best year they have enjoyed in years, at 8-0. But wait a minute. We have to remind ourselves of the top teams that they’ve played….uh… none. Ok, well #20-something Kansas maybe counts a little. Other than that, nada. Not only that, but until last week, they have struggled to win in several games in which they were profound favorites. It’s not that we think TTU lacks the talent or the capability to beat Texas, but history hasn’t been kind. In order to do so, the Raider offensive line will have to put forth a Herculean effort to keep the Texas defensive line away from Graham Harrell. If they can, then Harrell may have time to make the plays he needs to, as the Texas secondary has shown vulnerability to good passing games giving up huge passing yards in the aforementioned games. Conversely, however, throttling Colt McCoy’s offense will take pressure…pressure that to now the Raider defense hasn’t shown in any game. And Lord help the Raiders if it gets down to a kicking game. We like Texas, comfortably in this showdown. No upset watch here. Longhorns by 18.
#2 Penn State (9-0). Does not play.
#3 Alabama (8-0) hosts Arkansas State (4-3). Are you kidding me? Is there some sort of mistake here…let’s double check. Well, yeah, sure enough, the Tide put a mid-season pansy from the Sun Belt on the schedule. Let’s igore the fact that A-State is a decent 4-3, but … oh my! Now we haven’t seen Alabama line up and kick the other team into oblivion since their 49-14 thumping of, oh yeah, Arkansas back in September. Well, looks like that state’s put up another punching bag. Tide by 28.
#4 Oklahoma (7-1) hosts Nebraska (5-3). This isn’t the 70s, so the showdown feel is way gone. Oklahoma’s offense will certainly be way too much for the Nebraska defense so we’d expect lots of Sooner points. Whether the Cornhuskers can mount a ball control offense to keep them thwarted, as they did against Texas Tech, remains to be seen. The Nebraska defense isnt giving up 40 points/game anymore, for sure, but they arent scoring that much either. The Sooners should make it to 8-1 fairly easy hosting this in Norman. Oklahoma by 24.
#5 Texas Tech (8-0) hosts #1 Texas (8-0). See above comments. Texas by 18.
#6 Florida (6-1) at #8 Georgia (7-1). Easily the REAL game of the week, and the winner of this game, probably going to the SEC Championship against Alabama, and most likely to the NCAA Title Game against Texas, barring way unseen circumstances. Florida has finally resurrected their offense from the doldrums witnessed by their thrashing of LSU 51-21 two weeks ago. When you can crank that much offense against one of the best defenses in the country, you’ve got talent. What LSU couldn’t muster, however, was much offense to keep Florida’s offense off the field. This is something that Georgia should be able to do, and in so doing, will keep Florida’s possessions down and the score lower. This also plays into the hands of the Georgia defense, but they haven’t seen a team like Florida yet. The Gators have outscored their opponents 152-33 since losing a heartbreaker to Mississippi. Upset watch isnt really the name of the game here, as 6 v 9 isnt our idea of an upset watch, but suffice it to say that there is equal chance for either team to win. However, Georgia relies on their defense to help it win games, and we think both teams will try to play ball control. Overall, assuming that both offenses can and will be effective, we like the fact that Florida is just playing better ball that just about anyone right now, and comes to the contest hitting on all cylinders. Gators by 4.
#7 USC (6-1) hosts Washington (0-7). We would take arguments, but the Pac-10 must be the weakest conference in the country this year. While Oregon, California, and even Arizona State have been in the T25 at one time or another, its USC and not much else there. Thanks to their loss at Oregon State, the Beavers control their own destiny, which might be fairly bad. USC has turned into a giant enigma this year, as they’ve turned from being an offensive dynamo (led by the likes of Matt Leinart and John David Booty) into a defensive juggernaut. QB Mark Sanchez has struggled to find a consistent handle on a variable offense that has just not found any consistency. In some games their running game just dominates, but when stopped on the ground, Sanchez has faltered dramatically. All this being said there’s not much need for alot of offense with the Huskies coming to town. Washington’s defense has given up 44 to Oregon, 55 to Oklahoma, 48 to Arizona and no less that 33 on 3 other occasions. The last three weeks UW hasnt put up more than 14, and no more than 28 all season. This might be a game where even Mark Sanchez will find some success, finally. USC by 20.
#8 Georgia (7-1) hosts Florida (6-1). See above. Florida by 4.
#9 Ohio State (7-2) does not play.
#10 Oklahoma State (7-1) hosts Iowa State (2-6). Let’s agree now that OK State is more than just a spoiler team. They can play ball and play well. Despite their loss to #1 Texas, the Cowboys are playing at a level that very well could earn them a BCS bowl, especially if they manage to take out Texas Tech and Oklahoma along the way. They can, and the latter is a home game. This week however, another home game against the lowly Cyclones. Barring some unusual circumstance, like, the bus breaking down on the way to the game, the Cowboys ride again! Oklahoma State by 24.
#11 TCU (8-1) at UNLV (3-5). The Frogs have only lost to Oklahoma early in the season, and in about every other contest have dominated their opponents, including a 32-7 shellacking of then top-10 BYU. They get their chance on the National stage in two weeks when they take on Utah, which may be a trap this week. UNLV, even with their 3-5 record, have proven to be pesky. In their last two games, the lost to Air Force by 1 and BYU needed a late rally to win by a TD over the Rebels. So, TCU can’t be looking to Utah just yet. We think this might be a closer game than it may indicate. TCU by 10.
#12 Utah (8-0) at New Mexico (4-5). The undefeated Utes certainly have gotten the nod over TCS by the pollsters, but we remain a bit more partial to the Frogs. We understand the respect for the 0 vs 1 loss however, Utah hasnt played a team of the caliber of Oklahoma either. In fact, Utah hasn’t played a ranked team all year, and frankly, hasn’t just blown people away either. So, we’re not at all convinced. However, we are sure that the Utes do have enough to take care of New Mexico…more than enough. Utah by 21.
#13 Boise State (7-0) at New Mexico State (3-3). The WAC still pretty much revolves around the Broncos, and this week should be more of the same. The Broncos have won 49 of their past 51 conference games and all eight meetings against New Mexico State. We can’t imagine this changing this week. The pollsters love BSU and actually have them ahead of both TCU and Utah which would target them for a BCS bowl. Though Boise State’s defense ranks fourth in the nation by allowing 11.3 points per contest, it will face a New Mexico State team that leads the conference by averaging 324.1 passing yards a game. However, we’ll take the Broncos comfortably. Boise State by 14.
#14 Missouri (6-2) at Baylor (3-5). Ooo. Ouch. Tigers and Bears oh my. After giving up 993 yards and 84 points in consecutive losses, the Tigers defense rebounded with its best performance of the year in a 58-0 victory over Colorado, handing the Buffaloes their first shutout loss since 1988. Bears freshman quarterback Robert Griffin has 1,405 yards passing and 554 yards rushing, accounting for 65.8 percent of his team’s 2,977 total yards. He also has had a hand in 18 of Baylor’s 29 touchdowns — nine rushing and nine passing. So the task should be that Missouri controls Griffin and that should be the end of it. Uhm..it is. Missouri by 24.
#15 LSU (5-2) hosts Tulane (2-5). Next to USC, we nominate LSU as being another enigma. We knew from the outset that LSU was going to have problems with their offense, and with Dorsey gone on the D-Line, we were pretty sure that there would be holes to fill. This year, LSU has just befuddled everyone. At times they have looked brilliant, at least defensively, but then comes Florida and Georgia laying 50+ point and all of a sudden they dont look so hot. However, Tulane comes in with real consistency issues, and well, into Baton Rouge and…well, we think LSU takes this one just by sheer will. Tigers by 21.
#16 Brigham Young (7-1) at Colorado State (4-4). We had been really skeptical of BYU almost all season as they hadn’t performed up to par, and sure enough TCU walloped them good. Now the Cougs need to fight back to position themselves for a decent bowl. Colorado State is fighting for their lives to get bowl eligible, and its foreseeable. Look for C-State to fight a good fight here and maybe to the point of marginally nudging an upset watch. We expect a BYU win here, but not by much and watch out!! BYU by 6.
#17 Florida State (6-1) at Georgia Tech (6-2). Florida State aims to stay atop the ACC Atlantic standings when the Seminoles visit Georgia Tech. Bobby Bowden will be looking to improve to 13-0 all-time against the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech’s most recent win over Florida State was a 30-0 victory in 1975 in Atlanta. We think this is a hidden gem for the weekend. The ACC is definitely a mixed up bag of tricks. FSU has games coming up in the next few weeks against Atlantic Division rivals Boston College and Maryland that will determine who goes to the ACC Championship. Georgia Tech is currently eyeing North Carolina for the Coastal Division crown, and is tied there. Both teams have to focus. GT isnt ranked, but we think this could be a huge game for them. so this is an Upset Watch. GT was on a 4-game winning streak until they faultered last week against Virginia. FSU is on a 4-game win streak. Despite the home field advantage, we’re going to edge this one toward the Seminoles, but anything goes. Florida State by 3.
#18 Tulsa (8-0) at Arkansas (3-5). Here we go. The C-USA vs. SEC. No question that Tulsa is for real folks. QB David Johnson has a passing record of 205.34, and his last two game he’s gone over 240. He’s simply passed for over 2600 yards and 32 TD…to date. We dont care what conference or opponents you play thats just amazing. This all seems like a runaway right? Nope. The Golden Hurriance boast the nation’s top-ranked offense, but face a foe they’ve had little success against. The Razorbacks have a 16-game winning streak against Tulsa, dating back to 1976. Playing in Fayetteville wont help either. We still think that Tulsa has too much offense and just enough defense to overcome the Razorbacks tho. Tulsa by 10.
#19 Michigan State (7-2) hosts Wisconsin (4-4). At the beginning of the year, we might have never predicted the Badgers to be 4-4 and out of the running for the Big-10. But that’s the way it’s shaken out. MSU has proved to be the surprise of the Big-10, falling only to Ohio State in conference play, which means that they still have a chance for the title when they meet PSU in a couple of weeks. First its Wisconsin. Despite the record, the Badgers DO have a potent running game with P.J. Hill and have put together some pretty amazing efforts. We think this game could be a trap for MSU, and are putting this one on Upset Watch. The only thing we like here is that MSU is at home, and that may be enough to push this one in their favor. Michigan State by 3.
#20 Ball State (8-0) does not play.
#21 Minnesota (7-1) hosts Northwestern (6-2). Another critical Big-10 game. Minnesota has no record against Penn State and won’t play them in the future, yet they are only 1 game out. If PSU were to lose, the Big-10 is in a major uproar, and as such, the Golden Gophers certainly would like to stay alive. To do so, they’ll have to get by a stubborn Northwestern team thats played consistently well all season, losing to Michigan State and last week to Indiana by 2 pts. We’re thinking that Minnesota should win the game but with Northwestern playing so well, we’re putting this one on Upset Watch. Gophers by 10.
#22 North Carolina (6-2) does not play.
#23 Oregon (6-2) at California (5-2). This should be a titanic battle in the Pac-10 on the second tier order. Both teams seem to be in the hunt with proper talent, but theoretically, far below USC. There’s a logjam of one-loss teams in Pac-10 play, and this meeting of Oregon and Cal will thin the herd. Oregon ranks fifth in the nation in rushing at 278.8 yards per game. The Ducks, though, will be facing a California defense that’s holding opponents to 95.7 yards on the ground. California has won three of the past four meetings and two straight. At Cal, we have to put this one on Upset Watch, but lean toward Oregon Ducks by 2.
#24 Maryland (6-2) does not play.
#25 Connecticut (6-2) hosts West Virginia (5-2). Despite losses to UNC and Rutgers, a win over Cincinnati has put UConn back in the Top 25. But it will be a challenge to stay there with West Virginia coming to town. The Mountaineers have won all four meetings with the Huskies. This one definitely goes on Upset Watch, and we actually edge this one toward WV. Mountaineers by 3.
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